The Times outlined four potential scenarios for the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

The Times has revealed four possible scenarios for the conclusion of the war in Ukraine

The spirit of defiance has provided Ukraine with time and Western support following Russia's full-scale invasion, but if the country wishes to survive, it needs more than just resistance—it needs Trump. There are four realistic scenarios for how the war may end.

This is reported by the British publication The Times, emphasizing that none of these possible scenarios are as unrealistic as the death of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin or an unexpectedly successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The author of the article points out that Putin remains convinced he can defeat Ukraine, and the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to undermine this confidence will determine which of the four scenarios becomes reality.

The first scenario is the worst, as it suggests Ukraine's defeat, according to The Times. In this case, the aggressor nation, Russia, would continue the war and refuse negotiations, leaving Ukraine without U.S. support. Consequently, Ukraine could face military defeat, millions of Ukrainians would become refugees, and thousands who remain in the country could end up in Russian penal colonies. NATO would then confront the expansion of Russia and the Kremlin's tanks advancing toward the Polish border.

The Times speculated that Trump would fear such an outcome to the war.

The second scenario is described by the publication as a bad peace, and it is nearly as grim as the first. In this scenario, Ukraine, stripped of U.S. support, surrenders and is forced to seek a poor peace agreement from a position of weakness. Such a deal could lead to the division of the country and the establishment of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.

The third scenario, articulated by The Times, envisions a ceasefire. If this is part of a transitional phase leading to a final settlement, a peace agreement, and a genuine end to the war, it could, as emphasized in the article, lead to regional stability and the survival of Ukraine, protected by security and economic guarantees.

Trump's circle understands that without a definitive resolution to the conflict, a ceasefire will not be sufficient, and Russia could attack again in the future. This is reminiscent of the aftermath of the failed Minsk-1 and Minsk-2 agreements, the publication reminds.

A hopeful signal was noted by the author in the words of the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that the White House's task is to find a solution that ensures that Russia's war against Ukraine does not reignite with renewed force in two, three, or four years.

The Times refers to negotiations as the fourth possible scenario. According to this scenario, U.S. support would allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength, leading to an agreement that would ensure a sovereign and economically viable future for the country, with security guarantees to protect it from Russian aggression. The fourth scenario also envisions Trump imposing sanctions on Russia and supporting Ukraine with funds and weapons if Russia chooses to either abandon peace talks or engage in them “in bad faith.”

If this scenario becomes reality, Ukraine may have to make territorial concessions, and a return to the borders of 1991 is likely never to occur, the publication suggests.

“Considering the unpredictability of Europe's ability to finance and arm Kyiv, Trump’s influence will be decisive among Ukraine's allies in determining which of these four scenarios is most likely to materialize,” concludes The Times.

The article's author also noted that without U.S. support, Ukraine has no chance of ever reaching a position that would allow it to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. Furthermore, The Times is confident that the ultimate determination of victory or defeat at the end of the war will depend not on territorial concessions and the loss of Donbas territory, but on which alliance sphere—either the West or the Kremlin—Ukraine will fall into once the last shot is fired.