Fuel prices at gas stations may decline: which types of fuel are expected to become cheaper?

Gas station prices may decline: which fuel will become cheaper

Since January 2025, the cost of fuel at Ukrainian gas stations has increased due to rising excise taxes and the price of oil in global markets. However, due to certain factors, fuel prices at gas stations may slightly decrease before spring.

Information about current prices at Ukrainian gas stations and what to expect in the near future is provided by RBK-Ukraine.

What is the situation with fuel prices in February

In January, the price increase at gas stations was partly due to new excise taxes. For instance, the excise on liquefied gas increased by 1.3 hryvnias per liter, on gasoline - by 1.5 hryvnias, and on diesel - by a full 2 hryvnias. However, these are not the only factors, as oil prices have also significantly risen.

"At the beginning of January, the price of oil rose by almost 10% - from $75 to $82 per barrel. This, in turn, led to a rise in fuel prices, which increased by approximately 2.5-3 hryvnias. The increase in fuel costs was mainly a result of the rise in excise taxes, although diesel prices may have risen somewhat more. Changes in oil prices were less noticeable," commented Sergey Kuyun, director of "Consulting Group A-95," to RBK-Ukraine.

According to him, February has seen a certain cooling in the oil market. Oil prices have not returned to previous levels and are currently fluctuating between $76-78 per barrel of Brent. Consequently, fuel prices have slightly decreased.

The expert adds that the difference in prices remains stable for now, but we are currently witnessing the peak of the "dead season" - fuel consumption is minimal, and there is a substantial supply. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that prices may drop a bit more in the near future.

"I am confident that there is potential for prices to decrease by a hryvnia. The main factor is low demand. Sales are virtually absent right now, so they need to be stimulated, and the best way to do this is through price reductions. Therefore, it is likely that prices for all types of fuel, such as A-98, A-95, A-92, and diesel, may decrease. However, the situation with gas is different. In my opinion, gas does not have significant potential for reduction since its price is already stable. On the other hand, petroleum products - gasoline and diesel - can indeed become cheaper," notes Kuyun.

When will prices start to fall

The expert clarifies that a reduction in prices at Ukrainian gas stations could occur before the beginning of this spring. He points out that gas stations are currently maintaining high prices because they have not fully increased to the level dictated by the rise in excise taxes and oil prices.

"Gasoline and diesel prices should have risen by 4 hryvnias, but in reality, they only increased by 3 or even 2.50. This means that prices have not fully reflected the anticipated increase. The reason is low demand. No one wanted to raise prices sharply due to the lack of demand. Thus, they tried to keep prices at a level to avoid losing even more sales. As a result, they did not achieve the desired revenue," he explains.

Regarding the drop in demand, Sergey Kuyun explains that this is a seasonal phenomenon that usually continues even through March, which, according to him, has become another winter month for Ukrainian motorists in recent years. When consumption increases, it may affect prices, which will respond more quickly to changes.

"Right now, with a large supply of fuel, there is no opportunity for prices to change quickly; they remain inert. However, when consumption rises, products turn over quickly, and prices respond more rapidly to decreases. Changes could have occurred already if we were in an active season. But at the moment, we do not see that," he asserts.

At the same time, the director of "Consulting Group A-95" adds that the cost of fuel in Ukraine may also be influenced by the situation in global markets. In particular, U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he will work on lowering oil prices. He has already reached out to OPEC countries and wants to stimulate oil production in America. According to Kuyun, an increase in raw material production could lead to a drop in oil prices by more than $5.

What are the current prices at gas stations

As of February 20, Ukrainian gas stations have raised the average price of A-95 gasoline by 1 kopeck, bringing it to 56.90 hryvnias per liter. However, the price at the level of 56.87-56.90 hryvnias per liter has remained stable since February 6, following an increase of 6 kopecks.

According to "Consulting Group A-95," the average retail prices at Ukrainian gas stations as of February 20 are:

• premium A-95 gasoline: 60.19 hryvnias per liter;
• A-95 gasoline: 56.90 hryvnias per liter;
• A-92 gasoline: 54.06 hryvnias per liter;
• diesel fuel: 55.29 hryvnias per liter;
• gas: 37.05 hryvnias per liter.

The cost of petroleum products at different gas stations can vary by 7-10 hryvnias. For example, the gas station "Avantage 7" sells a liter of A-95 gasoline for an average of 52.95 hryvnias, while at the gas stations of the "SOCAR," "OKKO," and "WOG" networks, the same liter costs 59.99 hryvnias.