The Times outlined four potential scenarios for the conclusion of the war in Ukraine.

The Times revealed four possible scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine

The spirit of defiance has given Ukraine time and support from the West following Russia's full-scale invasion, but if the country wishes to survive, it needs more than just defiance—it needs Trump. There are four realistic scenarios for how the war may conclude.

This is reported by the British publication The Times, emphasizing that among these potential scenarios, there are none as unrealistic as the death of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin or an unexpectedly successful Ukrainian counteroffensive.

The author of the article points out that Putin remains convinced he can defeat Ukraine, and the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to undermine this confidence will determine which of these four scenarios materializes.

The first scenario is the worst, as it suggests Ukraine's defeat, according to The Times. In this scenario, the aggressor state Russia will continue the war and refuse negotiations, while Ukraine will be left without U.S. support. In such a case, Ukraine may suffer a military defeat, millions of Ukrainians will become refugees, and thousands of those who remain in the country will end up in Russian penal colonies. NATO will face the expansion of Russia and Kremlin tanks approaching the Polish border.

The Times speculated that Trump would fear such an outcome of the war.

The second scenario is described by the publication as a bad peace, and it is nearly as grim as the first. In this case, Ukraine, deprived of U.S. support, surrenders and is forced to ask for a poor peace agreement from a position of weakness. Such a deal could lead to the division of the country and the establishment of a pro-Russian government in Kyiv.

The third scenario, voiced by The Times, suggests a ceasefire. If this is part of a transitional phase leading to a final settlement, a peace agreement, and a real end to the war, it could, as emphasized in the article, lead to regional stability and the survival of Ukraine, safeguarded by security and economic guarantees.

Trump's circle understands that without a final resolution of the conflict, a ceasefire will not be enough, and Russia might attack again in the future. This is reminiscent of what happened after the two failed Minsk agreements, the publication notes.

A hopeful signal, the author of the article observed, came from the words of the new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who stated that the White House's task is to find a solution that ensures Russia’s war against Ukraine does not flare up with renewed vigor in two, three, or four years.

The Times calls the resolution through negotiations the fourth probable scenario. According to this scenario, U.S. support would allow Ukraine to negotiate from a position of strength, leading to an agreement that secures the country’s sovereign and economically viable future with security guarantees that protect it from Russian aggression. The fourth scenario also envisions Trump imposing sanctions against Russia and supporting Ukraine with money and weapons if Russia decides to abandon peace negotiations or engage in them 'in bad faith.'

If this scenario becomes a reality, Ukraine will have to make territorial concessions, and a return to the borders of 1991 is unlikely to happen, the publication suggests.

“Given the unpredictability of Europe’s ability to finance and arm Kyiv, Trump’s influence among Ukraine’s allies will be crucial in determining which of these four scenarios is most likely to become a reality,” The Times concludes.

The author of the article also noted that without U.S. support, Ukraine has no chance of ever reaching a position that would allow it to negotiate with Russia from a position of strength. Furthermore, The Times believes that the final determination of victory or defeat at the end of the war will depend not on territorial concessions and the loss of territory in Donbas, but on whose sphere of influence—either the West's or the Kremlin's—Ukraine will fall into after the last shot is fired.