The Russian Federation is preparing for a confrontation with NATO: this could happen within the next five years, according to ISW.
Russia is gearing up for a potential conflict with the countries of the North Atlantic Alliance, which may occur in the medium to long term within the next five years.
Any scenario that involves freezing the war in Ukraine could provide Russia with opportunities and additional resources for its military's involvement in a likely future confrontation with NATO. This conclusion was reached by analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War in their analysis dated February 12.
The basis for these analysts' judgments was a summary from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service, which on February 11 published declassified intelligence data about the growing threat from Russia to Denmark and other countries within the North Atlantic Alliance.
"Russia is rebuilding its military to compete with NATO on equal terms with the financial and material support of the People's Republic of China, North Korea, and Iran," the report states.
At the same time, as noted by the analysts, the report from the Danish Defense Intelligence Service indicates that Russia has not yet definitively decided to engage in war with NATO. However, it is "expanding its military capabilities to keep that option open."
"The cessation or freezing of the war in Ukraine on favorable terms for Russia would free up significant Russian military resources for participation in another future conflict," the institute's analysts stated, adding that this assertion from Danish intelligence aligns with their previous analysis.
Currently, according to the analysts, Russia "may engage in a localized war," aside from Ukraine, with another country within six months, and in two years could pose a real threat to NATO countries located along the Baltic Sea.
"Russia may be prepared for a large-scale war in Europe if NATO does not rearm at the same pace as Russia within the next five years," the analysts noted based on Danish intelligence data.