The IMF has predicted when the war in Ukraine will come to an end.
The IMF has predicted when the war in Ukraine will end
Experts from the International Monetary Fund have updated their negative forecast for Ukraine, taking into account the possibility of the war continuing for a longer period. The conflict could last until mid-2026, according to the published IMF analysis.
If the baseline scenario anticipated the conflict concluding by the end of 2025, the revised forecast indicates that the external financing deficit will rise to $177.2 billion, compared to the previous estimate of $148 billion. Overall, key macroeconomic indicators are expected to be significantly worse, with a projected real GDP decline of -2.5% in 2025.
The IMF's forecast pays special attention to the impact of the war on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which may lead to even greater destruction and electricity supply disruptions compared to the baseline scenario. As a result, economic recovery will be delayed, and inflation will remain at a high level.
Despite the negative forecasts, the IMF emphasizes the stability of its support program for Ukraine. Discussions with the government and international partners indicate the reliability of financial guarantees, allowing for expectations of achieving macroeconomic stability even under such circumstances and reverse migration.
The updated forecast also considers higher defense needs and economic weakness, which will lead to an increase in the budget deficit in 2025-2026. At the same time, the inflation and economic growth projections will remain moderate, with the pace of economic recovery being slow compared to optimistic estimates.
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