When could a ceasefire occur in Ukraine? The Bundestag has outlined two potential scenarios for this situation.

When might a ceasefire occur in Ukraine: the Bundestag has considered two possible scenarios

Following Donald Trump's election as President of the United States, the world is debating when peace talks between Ukraine and Russia will commence. However, many participants in these discussions feel that "a good dose of realism is lacking".

This is highlighted by German MP Michael Roth in an article for Welt.

"Even if the West and Ukraine are tired of the war, a ceasefire with Russia is still a long way off. President Vladimir Putin shows no serious willingness to negotiate, and key questions regarding how to implement and stabilize such a ceasefire in the long term remain unresolved," – the author of the article pointed out.

According to Roth, if Ukraine does not receive effective security guarantees, there is a significant risk that the Kremlin will use a ceasefire as a breather, taking the opportunity to strengthen its military capabilities and launch a new strike at the most opportune moment.

Roth noted that many Western politicians view Ukraine's refusal to join NATO as a key provision in any future peace agreement that is supposedly meant to satisfy Putin.

"But Putin has never been interested in NATO in the first place. Moreover, neither U.S. President Joe Biden nor German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have ever seriously considered the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO in the near future... Putin's goal is to enslave Ukraine and destroy the Ukrainian nation — either through military occupation or by establishing a loyal regime in Kyiv," – he explained.

Despite significant losses, Russia has enough resources to continue the war longer than Ukraine can sustain. Therefore, the Russian occupying army will persist in active combat operations in Ukraine as long as Putin hopes to achieve his objectives through military means.

Roth emphasized that the world must prepare for at least two scenarios regarding the situation in Ukraine. The first scenario suggests that Putin will refuse to negotiate or that peace talks will quickly fail. In that case, the U.S. might announce a substantial increase in military aid to Ukraine.

However, American weapon supplies are nearly depleted, and Trump and Republicans, in general, are more focused on confronting China. Thus, it is currently difficult to predict how much military support from the United States can be increased.

"The other scenario is that Putin will drag out the negotiations while simultaneously intensifying military actions. It is uncertain how long Ukraine can hold the front without further assistance from the U.S. In either case, Germany and Europe will need to significantly increase their efforts to prevent Ukraine's defeat," – the MP stressed.

He noted that Trump's reelection "turned everything upside down," but at the same time opened new opportunities for Ukraine.

"Europe is more important now than ever: only with our help can Ukraine survive as a free and democratic state. Only we can stop and temper Russian imperialism," - emphasized Michael Roth.