Over the past year, 500,000 citizens have left Ukraine, and the National Bank of Ukraine has provided a grim forecast.

In the past year, 500,000 citizens left Ukraine: the NBU provided an unfavorable forecast

Throughout 2024, the outflow of migrants from Ukraine continued, totaling approximately 500,000 people for the year, with expectations for this trend to persist into 2025.

As stated in the "Inflation Report" by the NBU, security risks and power outages negatively impact the quality of life for Ukrainians, leading them to seek opportunities abroad. The NBU suggested that this situation is likely to continue this year, predicting that another 200,000 individuals will leave the country.

However, starting in 2026, a return of people to Ukraine is expected (around 200,000 individuals), which will accelerate in 2027 (approximately 500,000 individuals).

The National Bank explained that the decreasing proportion of those wishing to return is due to Ukrainians adapting abroad. Therefore, a mass and rapid return of Ukrainians home under the current circumstances is unlikely, which will result in a continued labor shortage in the coming years.

"This will lead to persistent disparities in the labor market and wage growth at a rate exceeding productivity increases in certain sectors, thereby increasing inflationary pressure. The slow return of migrants will also limit the recovery of domestic demand," the NBU noted.

There remain risks of a greater outflow of migrants abroad and fewer returns. In such a scenario, the condition of the labor market will deteriorate, and domestic consumer demand may decline. At the same time, changes in the policies of recipient countries regarding Ukrainian migrants, along with the Ukrainian government's strategies for encouraging migrants to return home, could improve the situation.