Lessons from Munich: What future does Trump envision for Europe, and has the world become more accessible for Ukraine?

In this article, RBK-Ukraine's Deputy Editor-in-Chief Milan Lelich discusses the outcomes of the Munich Security Conference for Ukraine, Europe's fears, the negotiations with the Americans, and what to expect in the near future.

"We arrived in Munich in a bad mood, but we are leaving in a much better one," – this sentiment was echoed by several members of the Ukrainian delegation to RBK-Ukraine.

Two reasons contributed to this change in mood. The first was that the first significant in-person contact with top representatives of the new American administration went quite well. However, throughout the week, events unfolded in a rather threatening manner.

Initially, Donald Trump impressed everyone with his call to Putin and subsequent comments on Ukraine, including announcements of new contacts and even full-fledged negotiations with the Russians. U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegset also added to the anxiety when he stated outright during his speeches at NATO headquarters that NATO membership was not in the cards for Ukraine.

While no one had seriously promised Ukraine NATO membership before, the mere fact that a high-ranking American official made such statements openly and in a rather aggressive tone clearly demonstrated that times have changed.

"This is Trump's negotiation tactic with us – to take the initiative, throw out ideas, initiatives, and announcements for negotiations: let's quickly sign this, let's meet right now and resolve everything, etc.," said an experienced former Ukrainian official to RBK-Ukraine at the Munich conference.

In addition to the endless stream of statements from Trump, the situation was further aggravated by an equally endless flow of "insights" from Western media. Both had to be refuted by the conference organizers and personally by Zelensky: for instance, regarding the supposed Ukrainian-American-Russian negotiations taking place in Munich or planned for later in Saudi Arabia.

In practical terms, Trump's pressure manifested in nudging Ukraine towards signing a mineral extraction agreement, a draft document which U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought to Kyiv during the week.

The Americans wanted to sign it in Munich, with the clear motivation that it could be favorably "sold" to their audience in the States. In other words, unlike Biden, they are not just sending billions to Ukraine; rather, they are executing a profitable deal.

The Ukrainian delegation faced a complex and dual task. First, not to "bend" too much to the Americans – that would be perceived as a sign of weakness, suggesting that Ukraine could be forced to accept anything further. Second, to do this in a way that would not damage the nascent relations with the new U.S. administration.

Moreover, according to the publication, the American side initially set a condition: the personal meeting between U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance and Volodymyr Zelensky could only take place if Ukraine agreed to sign the mineral extraction agreement beforehand.

However, this condition was ultimately lifted, the meeting took place, and according to several sources from RBK-Ukraine, the Ukrainian delegation largely passed this "test." Zelensky personally explained to reporters that the proposed document was, in general, one-sided and did not imply any obligations or guarantees from the American side. Therefore, it would need to be revised – but Ukraine does not reject the concept itself.





"We carefully showed our American friends that we also have a position. With this agreement, they gave us a lemon, and our task is to turn it into lemonade," – said a source from the Ukrainian delegation to RBK-Ukraine.

The second reason that gave the Ukrainian representatives in Munich some grounds for optimism was that Europe seems to be starting to "wake up." This required a series of sharp slaps from Trump's team, which last week seriously turned its attention to European affairs for the first time.

Hegset was the first to shock the European audience, directly stating in Brussels to European allies that the U.S. would no longer guarantee their security. Following this, Vice President Vance delivered a programmatic speech in Munich, dedicating it not to the war in Ukraine, nor to the Middle East or the Chinese threat – but to problems with democracy in Europe itself.

Vance explained to the stunned Europeans that their values now diverge significantly from American values. "Veterans" of the Munich conferences unanimously assured RBK-Ukraine that they had never seen Europeans so impressed (the original wording was usually more blunt).

If the eastern flank of the EU/NATO has long understood the world they live in, as have the Northern countries along with the UK, then the recent statements have been a genuine revelation for "old" continental Europe. The prospect of suddenly finding themselves without the American "security umbrella" genuinely horrified them. As did the realization that the infamous "transatlantic unity" evidently exists more on paper than in reality.



U.S. Vice President Vance’s speech at the Munich Conference (Photo securityconference.org)

Vance's speech, along with statements from Trump and other American administration representatives, undoubtedly became the main topic of discussion at both official events in Munich and in the corridors.

"It's Sunday morning, and I feel like we're on a psychiatrist's panel. We're trying to calm down, suppress our emotions, trying to say that we're not that bad and are doing everything we can. But unfortunately, this is a problem, and perhaps it's part of European culture – we constantly try to reflect," said Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs during one of the panel discussions.

In response to the rapid developments, an emergency summit of European foreign ministers was organized right in the corridors of Munich, and today a meeting at the leader level of major countries, initiated by French President Emmanuel Macron, will take place in Paris.

How effective this activity will be will only become clear in hindsight. For now, predictions are mixed. "I'm afraid that after a couple of days, we'll relax again and return to our usual affairs," – stated Rinkēvičs.

In contrast, the Ukrainian delegation appears to be more optimistic overall. Sources from the publication reported that our side generally asked the Europeans not to escalate relations with the Americans, to refrain from overly sharp reactions that could only be harmful. And in this matter, Ukraine is supported by the British, among others.

Another statement that significantly impressed Europeans (both top officials and politicians, as well as journalists) was made by Trump's special representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg: that Europe will not physically be present at the negotiating table. Essentially, Kellogg's message was: you, Europeans, have already tried to negotiate, you made the Minsk agreements – and we all see where that led; therefore, now we Americans will negotiate and show everyone how it should be done.



Keith Kellogg in Munich (Photo pinchukfund.org/)

However, substantive discussions regarding specific points of a peace plan (such as which territories will ultimately remain with whom, etc.) did not take place in Munich – this was confirmed by all sources in the Ukrainian delegation to RBK-Ukraine. Rather, discussions were, in Kellogg's words, "talks about talks" – discussing possible parameters for peaceful resolution. Specific predictions that a peace agreement would be signed in Munich or shortly thereafter were, as expected, not fulfilled – there is still quite a distance to cover.

"The U.S. currently does not have a concrete peace plan; there is, rather, a 'cloud of ideas,'" – said one of the informed sources to the publication. One of these ideas, for example, is that a ceasefire should be achieved as soon as possible, and a substantive peace agreement can be developed later. Kellogg even publicly stated this. However, Ukraine categorically does not accept this approach, citing previous experience – it simply will not work in practice.

For now, Ukraine insists that we need to return to the borders of February 23, 2022, and this issue will obviously be discussed at the upcoming Russian-American negotiations in Saudi Arabia.

Ukraine will not be present at these negotiations, but theoretically, this should not be overly alarming – after all, Russia was not present in Munich, for example. And overall, without contacts with the Russians, Trump and his team are unlikely to develop any specific peace plan. Although the specter of a "deal behind everyone's back" still loomed in the corridors of Munich.

However, there is currently a clear exchange of public signals between Washington and Moscow. This indicates that a deal could not be reached in a behind-the-scenes manner (and such attempts definitely took place immediately after the American elections).

Intensive diplomacy on various platforms will continue in the coming days and weeks, including in Kyiv, where many European and other guests are expected to visit on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion on February 24. It is clear that if Ukraine does not present its own agenda, does not propose and promote its ideas, it will have to follow the agenda set by Trump's team. And this is a scenario that should be avoided.