Is Ukraine launching counterattacks? How is the frontline situation evolving, and what’s the status of Russia's offensive?
The pace of the Russian offensive is decreasing. The Ukrainian army is trying to identify weak spots in the Russian defense and improve its position in the most challenging directions. What is happening on the front lines and what Ukraine's plans might be regarding the Kursk region are discussed in the article by RBC-Ukraine military-political observer Ulyana Bezpalko.
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The Ukrainian army has begun cautious counterattacks on two critical sections of the front for Russia. At times, the Defense Forces have managed to achieve tactical success and disrupt Moscow's plans. The situation for Ukraine remains highly challenging, and the prospect of a strategic turnaround is not yet in sight. However, for the first time since last summer, the momentum of Russian advances has slowed.
Since the occupiers captured Velyka Novosilka, made advances in Chasiv Yar, and crossed the Black Horse River in the Lyman direction, there have been no significant shifts in these areas over the past few weeks. However, the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kupiansk, and Novopavlivka (also known as Kurakhove and Konstantynivka) directions, along with the Kursk region, remain hotspots of the fiercest fighting.
Kupiansk, Toretsk, and Kurakhove directions
The main danger in this area is not merely that the Russians have cut off our grouping on the left bank of the Oskol River - south of Kupiansk and north of Borova. Rather, it is that enemy forces have managed to cross to the right bank of this river, establish a foothold, and gradually expand their bridgehead near Dvurechne. Further expansion of enemy control in this area will enable them to improve their logistics through Oskol and double the threats to Kupiansk.
Southward in Toretsk, fighting continues despite the aggressor’s claims of having fully captured the city. Ukrainian troops are holding the line in parts of the Zabalky microdistrict, within the industrial zone of the "Toretska" mine, and on some of the spoil tips to the west of Toretsk. This means our presence there is still significant. Positions on the spoil tips allow us to hold back enemy advances, as such elevations facilitate fire control against them. Enemy units are simultaneously trying to break northward toward the neighboring settlements of Krymske and Dachne. In fact, the situation in both Chasiv Yar and Toretsk is hindering the occupiers from seizing their next target - the city of Konstantynivka.
In the Kurakhove direction, the enemy is still making efforts to eliminate our "bulge" in the Dachne area (not to be confused with the one in the Toretsk direction) and Konstantynivka, squeezing it from three sides - north, east, and south. The enemy's "northern" grouping has been the most successful in this regard, managing to break through to Andriivka, thereby narrowing the retreat routes.
DeepState Map
Although the Defense Forces are gradually retreating from this foothold - Dachne is likely already occupied or will be in the coming days - they are engaging in rear-guard actions and preventing the Russians from advancing rapidly in this area. Moreover, the resistance of our troops at the Kurakhove bridgehead is hindering the enemy from fully redirecting their attention and reallocating forces to capture their most prioritized target - the city of Pokrovsk.
Pokrovsk
In the Pokrovsk direction, a decrease in the number of Russian assaults and attacks is being observed. The Russians have had more success on the right flank of their grouping - to the northeast of Pokrovsk. There, they have managed to approach the T0504 road closely in the section between Konstantynivka and Pokrovsk near Vozdvizhanka. Their attempts to expand this "tentacle" have so far been unsuccessful.
In recent months, the enemy has focused on offensive actions to the south and southwest of the city. Their next primary objective here is to reach the T0504 road - Pokrovsk - Pavlohrad, which runs to the west of the city. Previously, the Russians managed to cut off one of the two roads leading to Dnipropetrovsk - toward Mezhova. They then approached Zverovo - just two kilometers from Pokrovsk. However, over the past week, the occupiers have been unable to capitalize on their gains.
DeepState Map
At the end of last week, the Defense Forces conducted several counterattacks, regaining positions in the villages of Uspenivka and Kotlyne. Additionally, according to RBC-Ukraine, the 425th Separate Assault Regiment "Skala" managed to reclaim almost the entire settlement of Pyschane, which is located on the close approaches to Pokrovsk. Simultaneously, at the beginning of this week, information emerged regarding a successful counterattack by our military from the 68th Separate Mechanized Brigade near Dachne. Furthermore, the Defense Forces managed to restore lost positions near Vodyane Vtore.
While this cannot be called a full-fledged counteroffensive operation - rather, it is an improvement of the tactical situation with the available forces, in conditions of quantitative superiority of the enemy - these actions, due to their unexpectedness, force the Russians to slow their pace of advance and at least delay the onset of the battle for Pokrovsk.
Kursk region
Exactly six months after the start of the Kursk operation, the Defense Forces initiated new counteroffensive actions on Russian territory. Taking advantage of the weather conditions and the temporary absence of North Korean soldiers, Ukrainian troops launched an assault on February 6 in the southeast from Suj and managed to capture several nearby villages covering an area of more than 10 square kilometers - Kolmakiv, Cherkaska Konopelka, and possibly Fanaseivka. The breakthrough towards Ulanok, which the Defense Forces achieved on the first day of these actions, amounts to about 5 kilometers.
Interestingly, unlike the previous attempt on January 6, these offensive actions have so far met with tactical success. Although the breakthrough by Ukrainian troops was "curbed" by the enemy, they managed to consolidate their positions in the captured settlements and can potentially develop further advances. It seems that the goal of the Defense Forces in this area may be to eliminate the Russian encroachment around Ulanok and Plekhov. At least, according to reports, Ukrainian forces do not plan to stop their progress in the Kursk region.
Area of assault actions of the Defense Forces in the Kursk region (map: DeepState)
A major challenge for our units here, as well as on other sections of the front, is the fiber-optic drones - they cannot be suppressed by electronic warfare means. It is primarily these UAVs that have enabled the aggressor to halt the advance of our troops in the Kursk region.
Following the Ukrainian counterattacks, the enemy grouping also intensified on the opposite side of the Kursk front - to the northwest of Suj. North Korean soldiers resumed infantry assaults and began to push south from Mala Loknia. Meanwhile, the Russians have begun advancing toward Sverdlikovo - an important stronghold, whose capture by the enemy could disrupt the logistics of our grouping in the Kursk region.
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Recent events on the front lines indicate that problems are beginning to surface in the Russian army - exhaustion, lack of troops, and equipment. For this reason, the enemy cannot maintain intense actions simultaneously on multiple fronts and is forced to prioritize. The Ukrainian army, in turn, demonstrates that it can still successfully advance where conditions allow, where the enemy has gaps in its defenses, albeit with limited forces.
Through assault actions near Pokrovsk or in the Kursk region, our military has managed to improve its tactical position and push the front away from Suj. However, the significance of these counterattacks may be greater. It is possible that the Defense Forces intend to prevent the loss of Pokrovsk before the start of potential negotiations and a temporary ceasefire. Likely, Ukraine also aims to maintain its presence in the Kursk region until the commencement of the negotiation process regarding the end of the war. In any case, all of this may collectively strengthen Kyiv's position in possible peace negotiations.
President Volodymyr Zelensky explicitly stated that he is ready to propose an exchange - Kyiv-controlled areas in the Kursk region for Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories. He did not specify which particular Ukrainian territories are being referred to. However, theoretically, there could be many options here.
For example, this could involve exchanging the Kursk region for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which has played a significant role in the Ukrainian energy grid and generation. Another option could be for the seized enemy territories in the Kharkiv region, as well as Kinburn