Strikes on the rear. What does the U.S. approval for Ukraine to use Western long-range weapons against Russia mean?

How the West's decision to allow Ukraine to use their missiles against Russian territory will aid Ukraine, and whether the Kremlin will find a response, is explored in this article by RBK-Ukraine journalist Yulia Akimova.

For nearly three years, Russia has been attacking Ukraine with long-range missiles. Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian cities using practically everything at their disposal, including X-101 missiles with a range of over 5,000 kilometers.

Russia is also employing foreign-made components and weaponry in its war against Ukraine—such as Iranian Shahed-136 drones, which have been attacking Ukrainian sites since September 2022.

In other words, Russia does not adhere to any "lines," utilizing virtually everything in its warfare against Ukraine except for nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, Kyiv has been persistently requesting its Western allies to supply the Ukrainian army with military equipment and ammunition in an effort to achieve parity on the battlefield and to resist, if not in terms of quantity, then in quality.

One of the critical issues discussed throughout the nearly three years of full-scale war has been the permission to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles. Initially, Ukraine's partners were reluctant to provide long-range missiles at all, and later, after giving a limited number, they prohibited their use against Russia—allowing only strikes on territories occupied by it. While the Russian Armed Forces used Ukraine as a testing ground, experimenting with almost all types of missiles, Kyiv responded with drones of its own production.

Only towards the end of his presidential term did Joe Biden authorize the use of ATACMS missiles against Russian territory, which immediately led to similar permissions from the UK and France concerning Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles. This predictably sparked a wave of outrage and threats from Russia, culminating in the launch of an intercontinental missile towards Dnipro. While Moscow tests its "Oreshnik," Ukraine marks new targets for strikes on the Russian map.

Western Long-Range and Non-Nuclear Response from Russia

For a long time, Ukraine has been requesting long-range missiles from its allies. In 2023, they were provided—first ATACMS, then Storm Shadow/Scalp—but strictly forbidden to be used against Russian territory.

Both the US and Europe echoed concerns about "escalation." Meanwhile, Russia has been shelling all of Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the large-scale war, and in June 2022, it used X-101 missiles for the first time, attacking Kyiv. Russian munitions have repeatedly reached the border of Ukraine with Poland and Romania and occasionally struck territories of other states.

Despite ongoing attempts to test the West's patience, the turning point for Ukraine's foreign allies came when North Korean military personnel were engaged by Russia on the front. In mid-November, several Western media outlets reported that the White House had indeed permitted "long-range" strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially responded to the wave of information on this somewhat ambiguously, not confirming the permission to strike deep into Russia: "Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves."

It soon became known that Ukraine had already struck Russia with ATACMS missiles. According to an RBK-Ukraine source within the Defense Forces, the strike targeted a military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region, located 130 km from the border.

ATACMS missile (photo: flickr.com)

Another attack occurred on November 25—this time targeting the "Khalino" airfield in the Kursk region, as reported by local propagandists, later confirmed by the region's governor, Alexei Smirnov.

Simultaneously, public discourse began to assess how many Storm Shadow missiles Ukraine would receive for strikes deep into Russia. According to military expert Sergey Grabsky, it concerns "several dozen missiles," sufficient to "deliver several missile strikes on various targets within the Russian Federation."

In the Kremlin, even during the rumors about the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western "long-range" weapons, there was a flurry of statements of varying degrees of threat. Initially, Vladimir Putin sharply recalled the nuclear doctrine, a topic that had been discussed back in September but had been conveniently forgotten.

The changes that Putin decided to implement pertained to the use of nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state if it is assisted by a nuclear one or if a non-nuclear state attacks Russia using various means. Apparently, Moscow chose to forget that Ukraine has been striking Russia with its drones for over a year. However, as soon as the West hinted and then explicitly stated that it allowed Ukraine to strike Russia, the Russian dictator responded by signing amendments to the doctrine. But no reaction came from the West.

Seeing that attempts to once again raise the stakes with threats of nuclear war were unsuccessful, Russia decided to play another card. On November 21, Russia launched an intercontinental missile towards Dnipro. On the same day, Putin claimed that he attacked Ukraine with the "newest long-range system 'Oreshnik,'" while the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine reported that the strike was likely delivered by a ballistic missile from the "Kedr" missile complex, which had undergone tests as recently as October 2023 and that there was nothing "new" about this system. At the same time, several media outlets reported that the strike on Dnipro was made with a modification of the RS-26 Rubezh missile, which did not have a warhead.

Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty Images)

"Oreshnik," "Kedr," or Rubezh, despite the Kremlin's desperate attempts to instill fear, did not intimidate either the West or Ukraine itself. For Ukrainians, this move indicated that there was one more missile, and foreign partners stated that Putin's attempts to escalate had failed. A few days after the attack on Dnipro, the G-7 countries, in their joint statement, declared that "the strike by Russia on Dnipro with the 'Kedr' ballistic missile proves its reckless behavior."

But Putin does not cease his attempts to escalate; thus, on November 28, he stated that he would strike "Oreshnik" at the "decision-making centers" in Kyiv. Notably, this statement came after yet another massive attack on Ukrainian energy facilities, which this time was "dedicated" to attacks on Russia itself.

Putin also claimed that a strike with the "newest" missile would be comparable to a nuclear strike and paid particular attention to describing how "everything in the blast epicenter will be shattered into fragments, elementary particles, and turned to dust." His words were immediately ridiculed by experts, who noted that for a nuclear charge, the "Oreshnik" missile would need to carry hundreds of tons of explosives, which is physically impossible.

In response to Putin's threats, Vladimir Zelensky emphasized that the use of "Oreshnik" is merely an attempt to undermine the peace efforts of newly elected US President Donald Trump.

"Waving his 'Oreshnik' now, he can only do so to disrupt President Trump's efforts, which will certainly follow after the inauguration," Zelensky stressed.

While Russia futilely seeks new ways to escalate the war without using nuclear weapons, Ukraine will evidently continue to strike Russia with Western missiles.

How Long-Range Missiles Will Help

All three types of missiles that Ukraine has been permitted to strike Russia with are actually of relatively short range—ATACMS can reach a maximum of 300 km, while Storm Shadow/Scalp can reach between 250 and 500 km depending on the modification, but Ukraine was likely provided missiles with a range of 250 km, with no official information available on this.

After Ukraine was authorized to strike Russia, Western media published a map showing the maximum range of Western long-range missiles. Back in August, the Institute for the Study of War reported that there are about 250 military targets within the range of ATACMS in Russia—these include ammunition depots, military airfields with troops, command posts, and concentrations of personnel. As soon as Ukraine was officially granted this expanded radius, it struck these targets, notes American General Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe.

"Ukraine is already hitting the right targets, such as ammunition depots and command posts. I would also like to see continued strikes on Russian facilities in Crimea—a crucial theater of this war—to make it unusable for Russian forces. This is the first step towards liberating Crimea—to make it uninhabitable, then isolate it, which will become possible with the destruction of the Kerch Bridge," the expert noted in a comment to RBK-Ukraine.

In turn, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War indicate that Ukrainian forces can also weaken the Russian air defense system and target vulnerable Russian rear areas.

Storm Shadow/Scalp missiles (photo: Getty Images)

"Authorization for strikes with long-range missiles is necessary for Ukraine to weaken Russian air defenses, conduct more effective strikes against Russia, and target vulnerable Russian rear areas," ISW noted in a comment to RBK-Ukraine.

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