Sunday23 February 2025
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Concern in Brussels: Why Europe fears a secret deal between Trump and Putin regarding Ukraine.

Discover the current sentiments surrounding Ukraine within European political circles, who among Europeans has a rapport with Trump and could become our key ally in negotiations, and who is openly frustrating the American president. Read more in the column by Milan Lelich, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of RBC-Ukraine.
Брюссель в смятении: почему Европа опасается скрытой сделки между Трампом и Путиным по Украине?

To understand the current sentiments towards Ukraine in European political circles, who among Europeans has access to Trump and could become our main hope in negotiations, and who is openly irritating the American president – read the column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief of RBC-Ukraine.

"For Trump, we – Europe – are nothing," says RBC-Ukraine, quoting one seasoned delegate from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. We are discussing one of the most alarming topics of recent weeks – the potential for Donald Trump to strike that infamous "deal" with Putin regarding Ukraine, behind the backs of not only Ukraine but Europe as a whole.

This conversation took place even before Putin revived the long-dormant propaganda narrative about the "illegitimate Zelensky," which was then given a powerful boost by Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, Kurt Kellogg, with his thoughts on holding elections. It is clear that the average level of anxiety in Central Europe will shift from yellow to red following the upcoming phone call between Trump and Putin, which, according to rumors, may take place in the coming days.

"Trump is focused on Russia and China. We see how Zelensky rolls out the red carpet for him, but Trump doesn't want to walk on it," continues the interlocutor. Indeed, over the past couple of months, the Ukrainian authorities have been noticeably trying to win Trump's favor, including through sharp barbs directed at the Democrats he despises.

However, the Kremlin dictator has also clearly entered this game, with blunt yet pressing messages that hit Trump's sore spots: about the "stolen victory in the 2020 elections," that under Trump "there would be no crisis in Ukraine," and so on. Who is winning this remote competition for the affections of the American egotist remains unclear, but anxiety regarding the "deal behind our backs" is spreading throughout Europe.

If the first interlocutor, according to RBC-Ukraine's assessments, exhibits latent anti-Americanism, the second, on the contrary, is a staunch supporter of transatlantic unity. Yet, the messages are similar. "An agreement on Ukraine is unlikely to be reached at any broad summit. Probably, a few individuals will decide everything behind closed doors," he states. And to the proposed list – Trump, Putin, optionally Xi Jinping – he adds: and Mark Rutte.

The new NATO Secretary-General in the new political reality of Trump's era truly acts as one of the key ambassadors of common sense on a global level. Importantly, he has established contact with Trump. Moreover, in European political circles, a few years ago, he was referred to as "Trump's whisperer," as it was Rutte, then Prime Minister of the Netherlands, who mysteriously managed to smooth over the rough edges in the American president's relations with Europeans during Trump's first term.

And certainly, Rutte does not provoke in Trump the same allergy as collective Europe and its embodiment – the leadership of the European Commission. There are two reasons for this. First, the euro-bureaucracy, in Trump's view, epitomizes the "deep state," which Elon Musk is currently dismantling in the U.S. with such enthusiasm: a legion of indistinct figures with unclear functions, whom no one elected. Yet, they effectively ensure the stability of the European Union and "institutional continuity" – something clearly incomprehensible and therefore hostile to Trump.

The second reason is that European structures serve as an unnecessary layer for him, hindering "deals" to be struck directly with leaders of national states. In just over two weeks in office, Trump vividly demonstrated his highly personalized approach to governance. He called one capital, then another, then a third – and just like that, problems were solved, trade wars won even before they began (at least in the perception of the MAGA electorate).

However, calling and "dividing tasks" among the leaders of countries like Spain, the Czech Republic, or Finland is not possible – any serious moves they make must be coordinated with Brussels. This clearly frustrates Trump.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leadership has recently been actively promoting the message that Europe must be present at the negotiating table for any peace talks. However, they acknowledge that this may not happen, as Europe itself has lost momentum.

First and foremost, this concerns, of course, the "bicaméral heart of Europe" – France and Germany. In the former, the government lives in daily fear of resignation, while in the latter, the coalition has died after a long agony, with elections ahead and a challenging new coalition to form.

Moreover, as informed sources tell RBC-Ukraine, even those European deputies who have direct access to figures like Emmanuel Macron or Olaf Scholz are not particularly informed about Trump's future plans regarding Ukraine and Europe as a whole. This, of course, further amplifies their confusion and fear about the future, from which a trade war with the U.S. is already distinctly emerging.

Alongside confusion, European corridors are also filled with pseudo-pacifism ("why don't you just sit down and talk"), fear of Moscow ("what if the Russians drop a bomb on us"), and a more pragmatic "what if gas prices rise and voters oust us in the elections", as well as a very camouflaged yet palpable desire to return to "business as usual," which the war is hindering.

Fortunately, these sentiments are felt in the same PACE, but they certainly do not dominate. Perhaps if Ukraine and its delegation did not constantly remind everyone of themselves, things would be different. As it stands, support for Ukraine is the rule of good tone in the Assembly, with even the Hungarian delegation behaving decently.

However, aside from expressing support for Ukraine and condemning Russia, it is still not entirely clear where Europe sees its place at this stage of preparations for "big negotiations." In the PACE resolution titled "European Commitment to a Just and Lasting Peace in Ukraine," there are no particular details regarding Europe's role. And its main idea – "peace through strength" – is unclear to many, even among Ukraine's sympathizers.

The main European friends of Ukraine continue to be the Baltics, as well as Northern Europe and the United Kingdom. But even altogether, they cannot dictate the global agenda regarding Ukraine, especially considering the serious domestic issues facing the British government. "Europe may start doing something in the defense sector, but it will do so as Europe always does – very slowly, over ten years. Neither you nor we have that much time," says one European diplomat to RBC-Ukraine.

At the moment, however, the agenda is dictated by the U.S. and personally by Trump, with others forced to simply react. And so far, no one in the West has been able to say a decisive "no" to the American president.