Kremlin's tactics: What targets are Russians hitting, and is it possible for Ukraine to "ground" Russian aircraft?

Has Russia changed its objectives for mass bombardments, why does the Russian army attack daily with dozens of drones, and can Ukraine influence Russia's capacity to conduct large-scale strikes? This is explored in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Yulia Akimova.

For nearly three years, Russia has been carrying out mass shelling of Ukrainian territories. During this time, the Kremlin has clearly defined its targets – military facilities, the defense industry, logistics, and energy infrastructure. The year 2025 has already been marked by another large-scale bombardment from Russia, but this time the focus was not only on energy but specifically on gas infrastructure.

Ukraine is attempting to respond to Russian shelling, but achieving an equivalent response has proven difficult. The Ukrainian defense industry is currently unable to produce long-range missiles in large quantities, and Western allies continue to withhold long-range weaponry from Kyiv. As a result, Ukrainian forces are utilizing long-range UAVs, which target oil refineries, oil depots, defense industry facilities, and air defense sites.

Russian Objectives

From January 14 to 15, Russia launched its first significant missile attack on Ukraine of the year. Ukrainian forces intercepted a total of 77 targets – 47 strike UAVs, 23 Kh-101 and Kh-55m missiles, 3 Kalibr cruise missiles, and 4 Kh-59/69 air-to-surface missiles. Additionally, the Russians deployed a ballistic missile of the Iskander-M type or KN, which, according to reports from the Ukrainian Air Force, could not be intercepted.

This was not the most extensive bombardment, but this time the Russians, in addition to their usual targets, focused on Ukraine's gas infrastructure, as reported by Naftogaz. Eventually, the agency stated that gas supplies were uninterrupted and that the consequences of the attack were being managed.

Russia has previously targeted gas infrastructure. Often, the target has been the gas storage facility in the town of Stryi in the Lviv region. However, this time the Russian army attacked several gas storage facilities and compressor stations across Ukraine.

In its report, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that strikes on Ukrainian gas facilities were a response to similar attacks the day before. On the night of January 13 to 14, Ukraine conducted one of its most extensive attacks on Russia, with Ukrainian drones striking targets in 12 regions, including the "Russian" compressor station in the Krasnodar region. Yet, the Russians have been targeting Ukraine's gas storage facilities since the latter half of last year, so this cannot be considered a "response."

Experts believe that the first attack of 2025 was hastily prepared and may indeed have been a reaction to Ukraine's strikes, as noted by aviation expert Valery Romanenko.

"Firstly, it was a quick reaction to our strikes. The way Engels was ablaze was well visible on social media, even if the media went silent about it. The Russians needed to respond. They did respond, so to speak. Secondly, the bombardment was prepared hastily. Practically without ballistic missiles, only one missile was fired at frontline Kharkiv. They raised MiGs, but there were no launches. They mainly fired Kh-101 missiles from Tu-95s, but also launched a missile with a nuclear warhead simulator, meaning they had an iron dummy on board," the expert commented to RBC-Ukraine.

Russians will continue to shell Ukraine, utilizing all their stockpiles of missiles and drones. Experts identify three primary targets of the bombardments – the defense industry, logistical routes through which the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive weapons from Western partners, and energy infrastructure. This is in addition to the constant shelling of defense forces in frontline zones.

Energy facilities have been under attack from Russians since October 2022, and despite not yielding significant results on the battlefield, the Kremlin stubbornly continues to strike at thermal power plants and transformers.

"They are seeking other methods. Initially, they targeted power plants and transformer stations. They have destroyed practically all thermal and most hydroelectric power stations. They understand what they are doing now. They are hitting transformer stations, but we can restore them. They strike transformers and high-voltage lines, targeting the periphery of nuclear power stations. They believe that by doing this, they will incapacitate the Ukrainian energy sector, which is why they continue this practice," Romanenko added.

There are currently no signs that Russian tactics will change. Shelling will continue one way or another until pivotal moments occur on the military or diplomatic fronts, but the Russians may temporarily pause attacks on energy infrastructure, according to military expert, retired Major of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Alexey Hetman.

"Right now, I think they will not focus their attacks on this, because the rest of winter should be warm. There won't be significant cold. On the positive side, more than half of winter has passed. Therefore, I believe they will concentrate on our production facilities where we manufacture weapons," Hetman noted in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

In the intervals between bombardments, Russia attacks Ukraine with large numbers of drones – since September, there has hardly been a day without UAVs flying over Ukrainian cities. The main objectives of these daily attacks can be categorized into two – depleting Ukrainian air defense and attempts to keep the civilian population "on edge." However, considering that anti-aircraft machine gun installations primarily engage the drones, exhausting the Patriot system is unlikely to be achieved by the Russians.

"Regarding these 'Shahed' attacks, if anything gets through, they are already pleased. For them, it’s a success if some debris manages to reach its target. They do not set any significant goals, especially since many drones are decoys made of plywood, and simply exhaust our air defense," Hetman remarked.

Nevertheless, the threat posed by drone attacks should not be underestimated – drones that are not intercepted often reach residential areas and hit homes, terrorizing the Ukrainian population.

Ukrainian Attacks on Russia

Ukraine regularly strikes Russian oil refineries and military infrastructure facilities. Initially, these attacks did not receive support from Ukrainian partners, who urged to halt them to avoid worsening the global oil situation, but today, strikes on oil refineries do not raise such concerns.

One of the most powerful attacks occurred from January 13 to 14. In addition to the gas storage facility, Ukrainian forces targeted several sites, including the Saratov Oil Refinery, Kazan Orgsynthez, the Silicon plant in Bryansk, and the main oil pumping station in Kaleykino, Tatarstan. The radius of the attacks was quite broad, indicating that Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russia is increasing.

Clearly, these strikes are necessary to diminish Russia's military potential and inflict financial damage. However, whether it is possible to "ground" Russian aircraft using drones and thereby significantly reduce the threat of mass bombardments remains uncertain.

Experts believe that it will not be possible to eliminate the bombardments entirely – the aircraft are located too far away, and Ukrainian drones cannot reach them, but it might be possible to at least temporarily limit their fuel supplies.

"We can continue to strike at oil refineries, at chemical plants that process certain fuel and lubricating components to convert them into missile fuel or fuel for strategic bombers. However, it is impossible to ensure that they cannot take off at all. Russia is a petrol station country; it will be difficult for us to destroy everything. They have their own oil. We can destroy everything, but they will just pump it and produce more," Hetman said.

The aircraft from which the Russians strike Ukrainian territories mainly operate from airfields such as Olenya, Engels, Dyagilevo, Shaikovka, Savasleyka, Akhtubinsk, and Mozdok. Strategic bombers are based at the Olenya airfield, which is technically difficult to reach. Another portion of the Tu-22 bombers is stationed at Dyagilevo, which we can reach, but there are relatively few of them there.

"Dyagilevo has infrastructure for servicing all types of strategic bombers, but it is minimal because it is a training center. However, a few Tu-22s – one squadron can be serviced," Romanenko noted.

If the goal is to limit their fuel reserves, strikes can be made on Engels, which is what Ukrainian forces are doing. There, among other things, fuel for the Tu-160 is produced, although they are rarely used for strikes on Ukraine. Engels also houses the "Kombinat Kristall" plant – its base is part of the state strategic reserve and stores fuel for Tu-95MS and Tu-160 aircraft. On January 8, Ukrainian forces already attacked this base, and strikes are likely to continue. This will not reduce the attacks on Ukraine, but it will create certain difficulties for the Russians, notes Defense Express editor-in-chief Oleg Katkov.

"The destruction of this oil base will certainly complicate the operation of this air base, but it will not make it impossible. The enemy will spend additional resources on this. There was also specific T-8B fuel needed for the Tu-160, which are its only consumers. The possible destruction of some of this fuel stock may lead to a decrease