Russia is advancing in the Kursk region and Donbas. Is there a risk of a front collapse for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?

Russia has initiated a counteroffensive in the Kursk region and continues its offensive campaign along the entire Eastern Front. What is happening on the battlefield and what are the enemy's plans – in a piece by military-political observer Ulyana Bepalko from RBC-Ukraine.

For over a year, Russia has been conducting an offensive campaign. Ukraine's operation in Kursk has not caused the enemy to slow down in key areas of the front. In recent weeks, the enemy has made advances in the areas of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. They have captured Vuhledar and have also intensified their efforts near Kupiansk.

The main goal of the enemy as of today is to reach the administrative borders of the Donetsk region. By the end of the year, the occupiers aim to fully seize at least its southern part, while regaining control over the Kursk region is a lower priority for Moscow.

Northeast: Kursk Region, Kharkiv and Kupiansk Directions

Ukrainian units in the Kursk region have transitioned to a defensive posture. According to previous plans from Moscow, enemy troops were supposed to push the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) out of there by mid-October – they have already missed this deadline, although they have achieved some tactical successes in the past couple of weeks.

The enemy is conducting a counteroffensive in the Kursk region on several fronts. The Russians have regained control over the Korenevo area, advancing southeast towards Novoiivankivka. The enemy is also advancing towards this settlement from the west, from the direction of Snahostivka. Here, advancing from west to east, they have managed to push Ukrainian units back from the area of Lyubimivka – Zelenyi Shlyakh.

In Novoiivankivka, our units have so far halted the enemy forces. If the Russians can advance further east and capture Mala Loknia, they will cut off our northwestern bulge in the Kursk region. Simultaneously, the enemy has increased pressure from the southeast of Sudzha. There, they managed to liberate the village of Borky, approaching Plekhovo and Cherkaska Konopelka, where fighting is ongoing.

Ukrainian military maintains control over part of the Kursk region, established in August of this year (photo: GettyImages)

Sources within the Defense Forces indicate new deadlines set by the Kremlin for its troops: by February 1, 2025 – to regain full control over the Kursk region, and by February 25 – to establish a so-called buffer zone on the other side of the border – in Ukrainian territories.

In recent weeks, there has also been information that Russia will send a quarter of an 11,000-strong group of soldiers from North Korea to the Kursk region. Overall, North Korean troops are planned to be used to replace their units and guard facilities, but they are unlikely to have any significant impact on the course of hostilities.

Currently, according to the publication, Moscow has amassed over 40,000 troops for the liberation of the Kursk region. The situation there is indeed very dynamic, and even the aforementioned settlements can change hands within a day. The defense of the AFU has not yet collapsed, but the chances for Ukraine to further expand its foothold in Kursk can also be considered relatively low.

Whether this is good or bad depends primarily on the objectives pursued by this operation. Numerous sources from both military and political circles provide several theories. According to one of them, Ukraine's goal was to distract the occupiers from their offensive in northern Kharkiv. If this is the case, this goal can be considered partially achieved. The movement of Russians there has indeed slowed down since May. All the enemy has managed to do in recent weeks is regain control over part of an aggregate plant in Volchansk. A significant portion of the troops that were in reserve for an offensive in Kharkiv – possibly towards Velykyi Burluk or even towards Kupiansk along the right bank of the Oskil River – has been transferred to the Kursk region.

At the same time, on the opposite bank, the situation for the occupiers is improving. They have already reached the outskirts of the villages of Kruhlyakivka and Kolesnykivka, located on the bank of the Oskil, south of Kupiansk. A road from Borova on the right bank runs near them. Aligning the front line along the Oskil is currently a key task for the Russians in this direction.

If they manage to reach this river, they will create three significant problems for the Defense Forces. First, they will cut off the Ukrainian grouping on the left bank of the Oskil and greatly complicate the AFU's defense in this area. Second, they will pose a threat of losing the left bank part of Kupiansk. Third, capturing this foothold simplifies further offensives for the enemy towards Lyman, and consequently – towards the northern part of the Donetsk region.

The second theory regarding the objectives of the Kursk operation, which partially overlaps with the previous one, suggests that Moscow allegedly prepared similar "sanitary zones" as in northern Kharkiv and in neighboring Ukrainian regions. Specifically – in the Sumy region. Therefore, by entering the Kursk region, the AFU acted preemptively. Supporting this theory is the fact that the current plans of the Russians include the occupation of part of the border areas of Ukraine after the liberation of the Kursk region.

According to one version, Russia planned to launch an offensive in Sumy before the Kursk operation by the AFU (photo: Facebook 118 OMB)

The third theory posits that the operation in the Kursk region was meant to weaken the pressure of the occupiers in the East and force Moscow to withdraw some of its troops from there. Instead of the Kursk region, part of which has not been controlled by Russia for the third month, the Kremlin has opted to continue the occupation of Donbas.

Donetsk Region

According to Kremlin "directives," the occupying forces were supposed to take Chasiv Yar before May 9. Its peculiarity is that its smaller eastern part is separated from the larger western part by the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal. In early July, the enemy managed to approach the canal. At the same time, since last week, information has emerged that the occupiers have allegedly managed to cross the Seversky Donets – Donbass on the southern outskirts of the city. The publication Bild reported that the Russians allegedly broke through Ukraine's defenses on the southern outskirts of the city. The AFU claims that the enemy could not consolidate there and that such "raids" by enemy infantry occur regularly.

If the occupiers indeed managed to break through the canal, it would complicate the defense of Chasiv Yar. Attempts to bypass populated areas from the north or south, rather than storming them head-on, is a traditional tactic of the Russians. Frontal attacks require significantly higher personnel losses. They followed a similar scheme, for example, in their advance on Avdiivka.

Further south, the Russians have engaged in battles in Toretsk. The enemy has taken control of the Nahalivka micro-district in the eastern part of the city. It is clear that the enemy also now fully controls New York, but they have not yet been able to break further north through the village of Nelipivka into another micro-district – Zabalky – in the southern outskirts of Toretsk.

In total, up to 20,000 Russians are participating in the battles in this direction. In contrast, in the Pokrovsk direction, there are at least three times more. The city of Pokrovsk remains the enemy's key target along the entire front. Currently, all enemy actions in this area are aimed more at preparing an offensive on this city rather than an immediate breakthrough into it. The Russians are located seven kilometers from Pokrovsk.

In the Pokrovsk direction, in recent weeks, the enemy has managed to advance from the side of Hrodovka across the Zhuravka River, and from the side of Novohrodivka – into Lisovka and Sukhyi Yar. Additionally, the Russians have approached the city of Selydove from the north, east, and south, which is effectively on the route to Pokrovsk.

Russia has achieved more tactical successes in the southern part of Donetsk region in recent months (map: DeepState)

The most threatening is the enemy's advance specifically south of Selydove. This is essentially the "junction" of the Pokrovsk and Kurakhiv directions and the flanks of the Russian groupings "Center" and "South." First, the occupiers' successes on the right flank of the Kurakhiv direction (around Tsukuryne and Horyanka) create risks of encircling Selydove and bring them closer to the battle for Pokrovsk. Second, they threaten to encircle our groupings that