Radicals are on the rise. Why is Europe turning to populists, and what implications does this have for Ukraine?

Radical populists are gaining power or establishing a significant presence in the parliaments of several European countries. What does this mean for Ukraine, and is it all that bad? Read more in this article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Far-right and far-left in Europe
• Why is the popularity of populists growing?
• The Russian factor
• Why populists can be anti-Russian
• The evolution of their course
• Support from across the ocean
• Implications for Ukraine

A specter is haunting Europe – the specter of populism. Far-right and far-left parties in many European countries are either receiving double-digit support in elections or are coming to power altogether. This reality must be acknowledged. However, it is not as frightening as it may seem at first glance.

Far-right and far-left in Europe

The far-right "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) has long established itself as the most popular opposition force in Germany. With a rating of 18-20%, the party ranks second in public opinion polls and last year won local elections in Thuringia for the first time, subsequently showing strong results in other elections as well. The party has been under surveillance by the "Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution" for several years due to suspicions of extremism.

In 2021, the office classified the AfD in Thuringia as an "unconditionally right-extremist" organization. The party leader in Thuringia, Björn Höcke, was found guilty of using a banned slogan from Adolf Hitler's SA stormtroopers. Moreover, a German court ruled that Höcke could justifiably be called a "fascist."

On the other hand, the far-left "Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht" (ASW), with around 6% support, capitalizes on leftist themes of social justice and declining living standards. This political force emerged recently from a split within the former German communists of the "Left" party.

Only by a miracle have traditional parties managed to keep the AfD politically isolated. Germany's main parties have pledged to avoid coalitions with far-right groups, which cannot be said for the ASW. In November last year, this party became a member of the ruling coalition in Thuringia for the first time.

A similar situation exists in France. In last year's parliamentary elections, the far-right "National Rally" received 20% of the seats and came in second place. The former leader of the party (who remains one of its prominent faces), Marine Le Pen, is currently under investigation for misappropriating European Union funds and covertly financing the party. In 2014, she expressed support for the terrorists of "L/DNR," claimed to share common values with Putin, and advocated for the federalization of Ukraine.

At the same time, the far-left "Unsubmissive France" secured 12% of the seats. The party ran in a bloc with other leftist parties, thus de facto influencing a third of parliament, although signs of a split are already evident within the left camp.

Only the political acrobatics of President Macron, who can unilaterally appoint the Prime Minister, and France's majoritarian two-round electoral system are saving the country from complete political chaos. Although left- and right-radicals once managed to overthrow a Prime Minister appointed by Macron.

In Italy, after the 2022 elections, a coalition was formed by populist parties "Brothers of Italy," "League," and "Forward, Italy!" The leader of the first party and current Prime Minister of Italy, Giorgia Meloni, once openly expressed sympathy for the dictator Benito Mussolini. The leader of the second party, Matteo Salvini, is known for driving migrant ships away from Italian shores during his previous tenure as Minister of the Interior. The now deceased leader of the third party, Silvio Berlusconi, was a personal friend of Putin for many years.

The far-right "Austrian Freedom Party" (FPÖ) won the national parliamentary elections in Austria for the first time in history on September 29, securing around 29% of the votes. Moreover, for the first time, the country's president tasked them with forming a coalition.

In Slovakia, since 2022, the left-populist party SMER-SD ("Direction") and the far-right Slovak National Party have been in power. The previous leader of the latter party, Ján Slota, called to "pour concrete over the Hungarians" and announced a tank march of Slovaks on Budapest.

In Romania, in the parliamentary elections at the end of last year, far-right parties "Alliance for the Union of Romanians," "SOS Romania," and "Party of Young People" collectively secured a third of the mandates. In the presidential elections, an independent far-right candidate, Kelin Georgescu, won the first round. However, the results of the presidential election were later annulled due to substantiated suspicions of Russian interference.

In Sweden, the situation is unique. The right-populist party "Sweden Democrats" did not formally join a coalition in 2022. However, its representatives received non-ministerial positions in the government, allowing them to fully control its operations, access all information, and veto any decisions they dislike.

In Hungary, the far-right party "Jobbik" held strong positions for a long time. However, in recent years, it has become more moderate. In contrast, the long-time Prime Minister of the country, Viktor Orbán, has shifted sharply to the right in his rhetoric.

This list could go on for a long time. The common thread among all these parties is that they attempt to undermine the power of moderate political forces that have ruled Europe for decades. The secondary question is what kind of rhetoric they employ – far-right or far-left.

"Not everywhere, of course, but in many contexts, far-right and radical left parties have one common goal and one common enemy. This is primarily the liberal mainstream, as they call it," – said RBC-Ukraine's associated professor of European studies at the University of Tartu (Estonia), Stefano Bragiroli.

Moreover, the "horseshoe effect" is well-known in political science. It suggests that far-left and far-right parties are not actually antagonists, as they try to position themselves.

"They very rarely work together officially. But increasingly, they say the same things, act differently, yet have the same goals, and importantly, share the same electorate. Therefore, voters who today support the AfD in Germany may tomorrow vote for Wagenknecht," – noted Bragiroli.

Why is the popularity of populists growing?

The prolonged rise in popularity of right- and left-radicals in Europe has several reasons. In the long term, this trend began with the end of the "Cold War." This undermined the legitimacy of traditional parties that existed in a bipolar world, noted RBC-Ukraine's professor of international relations at Radboud University Nijmegen (Netherlands), Berthjan Ferbeek. Thus, a political and electoral space emerged for new movements and parties that mobilized support by claiming the "inability" of traditional parties to serve the interests of the people.

Furthermore, they gained momentum due to the strengthening of globalization and European integration. Populists instilled in citizens the belief that they had lost out in these processes and that traditional politicians were doing little to protect the interests of "the people."

"Moreover, migration (which is partially related to globalization) and the perceived threat to people have become central themes for many populist movements and parties," – said Ferbeek to the publication.


In general, the uncertainty about their future and the constant threat of losing "ground beneath their feet" create a favorable emotional climate for populists.

"People fear change, they fear uncertainty, they fear losing part of their prosperity and identity for various reasons. And this is precisely what populist parties build their narratives on," – said RBC-Ukraine analyst at the Western Institute in Poznań (Poland), Viktor Savinok.

According to him, populist parties