Right under Iran's nose. Why Trump is "calming" the Middle East and how it will impact the war in Ukraine.

Donald Trump has begun decisive actions in the Middle East alongside his focus on Ukraine. How he plans to address issues in the Gaza Strip and Iran, and how he might leverage the Middle East to exert pressure on Russia – is detailed in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Saudi Arabia – pressure on Iran and Russia
• Israel-HAMAS: Cutting the Gordian Knot
• The US and (non)nuclear Iran

After the Munich Security Conference, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky traveled to the United Arab Emirates. Simultaneously, a large Ukrainian delegation is working in Saudi Arabia, where Zelensky is also expected to arrive soon.

In Saudi Arabia, negotiations between the US and Russia regarding the end of the war are planned, involving US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Ukraine will not be involved in these discussions for now. However, negotiations between Ukraine and the US without Russia will take place in Kyiv.

The choice of Saudi Arabia as a venue for negotiations with Russia is not coincidental. Moreover, it is linked not only to the Russian context. US President Donald Trump is committed to not only ending Russia's war against Ukraine but is also actively seeking to stabilize the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role.

This region has become the second hotspot in the world after Ukraine since October 7, 2023. The HAMAS attack on Israel, followed by a justified Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, and the involvement of Hezbollah and other Iranian allies, including Iran itself, created a risk of regional conflict, which had so far been avoided through extraordinary diplomatic efforts.

Saudi Arabia – Pressure on Iran and Russia

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that one of the means to pressure Russia and Iran will be low oil prices – around $45-50 per barrel. This is unattainable without Saudi Arabia – one of the largest oil suppliers in the world. To lower prices, the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, must increase oil production to boost supply and provoke a price drop.

It is no coincidence that now Trump’s special representative for the Middle East, Stephen Whitcoff, has joined the negotiations between the US and Russia. He was the one who flew to Moscow on February 11 to secure the release of American hostage Mark Vogel. Simultaneously, according to Fox News, Whitcoff had a conversation with Russian dictator Putin that lasted 3.5 hours. The day before, Trump’s envoy discussed ending the war with leaders from Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, also have the resources to rebuild (or restructure) the Gaza Strip. Additionally, Trump is interested in attracting Arab investments into the United States – directly or indirectly through the purchase of American weapons.

This kingdom is also eager to restore full cooperation with the US, as relations between the countries were not a top priority for Washington during Biden's administration.

"Saudi Arabia welcomed the arrival of the Trump administration with high hopes that it would sell them weapons and technologies that the US previously opposed. Most importantly – that it would support them in developing a nuclear program and provide certain defense guarantees," – noted Ilan Zalait, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies and the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

During his presidency, Biden imposed restrictions on the sale of precision munitions and other arms to compel Saudi Arabia to end its military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen. He also raised concerns about human rights and had generally poor personal relations with the de facto head of the country, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Therefore, for a long time, Riyadh was reluctant to increase production, despite Biden's team's requests.

In exchange for weapons and technologies from Trump, Saudi Arabia has already announced that it will invest $600 billion in the US over the next four years. However, there are limitations. The country is implementing an ambitious modernization program called "Vision 2030," aimed at reforming its economy to reduce dependence on oil. Most of the "free" funds have been directed towards this program.

Saudi leadership has indirectly confirmed its readiness to help lower prices. "The position of the kingdom, the position of OPEC, is aimed at long-term market stability to ensure adequate supply for growing demand," particularly from the US and artificial intelligence, – stated Saudi Arabian Minister of Economy Faisal Al-Ibrahim at the World Economic Forum in Davos on January 24.

However, how the agreements between the US and Saudi Arabia will unfold depends on events surrounding Israel and Iran.

Israel-HAMAS: Cutting the "Gordian Knot"

During Biden's presidency, American diplomacy paid as much attention to Israel and HAMAS as it did to Ukraine. In fact, the number of visits by Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the region was even greater. However, the effectiveness of such trips was questionable. Negotiations to suspend hostilities and return Israeli hostages dragged on for months without significant success.

Everything changed with Donald Trump's arrival. Even before his inauguration, the new US president's special representative Stephen Whitcoff accomplished more in one trip than the entire Biden team did in a year. This was acknowledged even by Israeli officials. With the mediation of the aforementioned Stephen Whitcoff, Israel and HAMAS were forced to agree to a ceasefire, which ultimately did not satisfy either side.

Despite the constant risk of a breakdown in agreements, the question of rebuilding the Gaza Strip has now arisen. The first priority is to overcome the humanitarian catastrophe caused by HAMAS's aggression against Israel and the subsequent military actions. Furthermore, it is precisely this social base of millions of impoverished Palestinians that allows terrorists to repeatedly regain strength, using the narrative that only Israel is to blame for all their woes, not HAMAS.

To address this issue, Trump proposed a radical step – relocating about two million Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Instead of ruins in Gaza, modern residential and commercial complexes should emerge. He presented this idea during the visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the US.

It is far from certain that this idea will work. But despite the incredible nature of the relocation proposal, Trump has not abandoned it, albeit with adjustments. In particular, he discussed temporary relocation from the Gaza Strip with Jordan's King Abdullah II during the latter's visit to the US on February 11.

Reactions to Trump's idea in the region vary. 69% of Israelis support the proposal to expel residents of the Gaza Strip to other countries. However, a recent poll by Israeli Channel 12 showed that the majority of citizens consider this plan unrealistic.

In Arab countries, the sentiment is generally negative. HAMAS is perceived in many states as an antagonistic force, part of the "Muslim Brotherhood" network, which often seeks to undermine traditional power structures. However, there exists a historical sentiment towards Palestinians in a broader sense.

"I do not understand how any country in the region would accept the idea of taking in masses of Palestinians. In addition to the heavy economic burden, Arab states have nurtured the narrative for eight decades that they support Palestinians in their struggle for Palestine. They cannot suddenly agree to have Palestinians leave for other places, even in exchange for financial compensation," – said Ilan Zalait.

Egypt sharply rejected the idea – the country that borders the Gaza Strip and is viewed by Trump as one of the relocation sites. At the same time, Egypt intends to propose a plan with a "comprehensive vision for the reconstruction of Gaza" to guarantee the Palestinian people's "continued presence on their land in accordance with their legitimate rights." Such a vision is also close to Jordan, another neighboring country to Israel, as well as to most others in the region.

"Rebuilding Gaza without relocating Palestinians and addressing the dire humanitarian situation must be a priority for everyone," – wrote the King of Jordan after his meeting with Trump. He stated that the two leaders had a "constructive" conversation, but his country remains concerned about Trump's proposal. Nevertheless, the idea of relocation is likely to continue to evolve. Moreover, the US has sufficient leverage over Egypt and Jordan.

"Firstly, both countries are significantly dependent on the United States for security. They are equipped with American weapons and receive aid for this armament. And this is a powerful factor. Secondly, particularly in Egypt, the economic situation is far from the best. They depend on capital markets for loans and cooperation," – noted Sergey Danilov, Deputy Director of the Center for Middle Eastern Studies in Kyiv, to RBC-Ukraine.

How Middle Eastern leaders will respond to Trump's actions is set to be discussed at the Arab League summit on February