A world through strength: How Trump could compel Putin to end the war and initiate negotiations.

Donald Trump and his team claim they plan to put an end to Putin's war against Ukraine. The administration of the new U.S. president has already articulated a number of threats and measures that they may employ against Russia. More details can be found in the piece by military and political analyst Ulyana Bezpal'ko for RBC-Ukraine.

U.S. President Donald Trump promised multiple times long before his inauguration that he would quickly bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine. Various statements made by him and members of his team after they took office show that he is not backing down from his rhetoric.

After his inauguration, Trump stated that Putin is destroying Russia and therefore must strike a deal. The very next day, on January 22, his address took on a more ultimatum tone:
"...I am going to do a BIG FAVOR for Russia, whose economy is collapsing, and for Putin. Make a deal now and stop this senseless war! IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE," wrote the U.S. president on the social network Truth Social.

The situation on the front seems to be pushing the Ukrainian leadership towards negotiations to end the war. It is likely that Volodymyr Zelensky conveyed this readiness very convincingly to Donald Trump during their meeting in Paris. Ultimately, when asked whether a peace agreement would be reached by January of next year, the U.S. president responded at the Davos summit: "You should ask Russia about that. Ukraine is ready to sign an agreement."

For almost three years of war, the Kremlin has spoken of an alleged willingness to negotiate while demonstrating the opposite. All variations of "peace" conditions previously proposed by Moscow resembled forced capitulation. Moreover, there are no guarantees that even this would compel Russia to halt its actions and not issue yet another dozen unrealistic demands.

Now the situation may change: both Putin's circumstances are not going smoothly, and a new team in the U.S. has come to power with a more determined stance to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.

Pressure Points

Russia holds the strategic initiative on all sections of the front. Daily, the occupying army makes gradual but systematic advances. This comes at a tremendous cost, yet the influx of contract soldiers, lured into the war with increasingly high payments, allows Moscow to replenish its military losses and even create new units.

Russia manages to produce new, albeit not very high-tech, weaponry, drones, missiles, and to restore old armored vehicles that have been gathering dust in storage. If the current pace of the aggressor's advance continues, it may succeed in occupying the entire territory of the Donetsk region by the end of the year.

"Putin sees that the Russian army continues to advance, so why, in his view, should he start negotiations if they are managing – albeit slowly and with heavy losses – to make progress? He hopes to negotiate from a position of greater strength. He believes that Volodymyr Zelensky's internal political situation will become more complicated, and he is trying his utmost to facilitate this. Ultimately, Putin simply cannot stand negotiations as such," notes political analyst Ivan Preobrazhensky, who left Russia in 2014, in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.

On the other hand, the Russian economy is beginning to show significant cracks due to and as a result of the war: high inflation, a constant rise in the key interest rate, and, as a result, high borrowing costs. Additionally, there is a labor shortage in the civilian sector due to a large portion of the population being involved in the war and the defense industry, as well as considerable expenses for the war itself, which consumes about 40% of the federal budget.

"The Russian economy is overheated because it has transitioned to a wartime footing. Its defense industry is heavily indebted and on the brink of bankruptcy. The banks themselves are in a very difficult situation. Russia lacks workers, which has resulted in excessive wage growth not only in the military sector but across the economy as a whole. Gazprom has also found itself on the brink of bankruptcy. Currently, its main export commodity is oil. But Russia is facing problems with oil prices as well," adds Preobrazhensky.

In fact, there are two perspectives on Russia's situation. It remains unclear which worldview Putin adheres to. Numerous economic forecasts predict that by 2025, the Russian economy will not improve, especially if it faces new external shocks – it may only get worse.

Trump's team has repeatedly stated that they will seek peace through strength. Although it is still unclear what specific plan lies behind this idea, Russia, in its current state, has plenty of pressure points that the U.S. could exploit.

"Putin does not need to be forced to sit down for negotiations to end the war – he is ready and will do so. The very situation in the Russian economy, the conditions on the front, and the massive losses are already compelling Putin to negotiate. Thus, Trump needs leverage specifically to convince Putin to abandon his previous terms. And Trump has that leverage," believes opposition political scientist Abbas Gallyamov, who emigrated from Russia.

One of these tools is the continuation of military assistance to Ukraine at least at the same or even greater level, including long-range weaponry. This would increase the cost of the war for the Kremlin, Gallyamov states.

Another avenue, noted by Preobrazhensky, is that Trump could create zones of instability for Russia where its strategic interests lie – similar to what Putin has done in the past. This pertains to Africa, where the extraction of natural resources, particularly gold, helps enrich the Russian treasury, as well as Libya, Syria, Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Far East, and Iran.

The third lever is restrictive and economic measures. Trump has already threatened Putin with high tariffs and additional sanctions if a peace agreement is not reached soon.

Opportunities to intensify pressure on Russia remain significant, says Ukraine's presidential envoy for sanctions policy, Vladislav Vasyuk.

"These are tariff restrictions – increasing tariffs on Russian metals, fertilizers, and other goods. Strengthening secondary sanctions against companies aiding Russia in circumventing restrictions, blocking new banks, confiscating assets, and limiting access to critical technologies should also be part of the strategy. Further sanctions are a key lever for compelling the Kremlin to engage in fair negotiations," Vasyuk lists.

However, he notes that the priority should be to reduce Russia's oil and gas revenues by countering the shadow fleet, tightening controls on price caps, and increasing production costs. The oil industry is the backbone of the Russian economy and a key source of financing for the war.

Russia's Shadow Fleet

The U.S. and its allies have already attempted to exert pressure on Russian oil. At the end of 2022, the EU and the UK refused to purchase oil from Russia transported by sea. Exceptions were made for Hungary and Slovakia, where oil is delivered via pipeline. Simultaneously, the European Union, G7 countries, and Australia agreed on a "price cap" for Russian oil shipped by sea to third countries at $60 per barrel. Western companies are prohibited from providing transportation or insurance services if that oil is transported at a price exceeding the established limit.

However, Moscow has found loopholes for importing crude oil into European countries that were exempted from anti-Russian sanctions. From there, companies linked to Russia resell either refined petroleum products processed at local plants or simply crude oil worldwide. Additionally, Russia's shadow fleet has facilitated circumvention of restrictions, and it has replaced the loss of Western markets by supplying its energy resources eastward – primarily to China and India.

Russia's shadow fleet consists of old tankers that transport oil without adhering to the established price cap and are not insured by Western companies. These tankers are registered both in Russia and in other jurisdictions. According to the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR), the majority of shadow fleet tankers are registered under the flags of Panama, Gabon, the Cook Islands, Liberia, the Marshall Islands, etc. The owners are registered in China, India, the Marshall Islands, the Seychelles, the UAE, Greece, and several other countries. The managing companies are based in the UAE, Greece, China, Turkey, and the Seychelles.

These vessels often change registration and names to make them difficult to identify. They transload oil onto other tankers in offshore zones, attempt to conceal their routes, and disable the Automated Identification System (AIS) at certain points in their journey. To prevent the establishment of the oil's Russian origin, they also mix it with other grades.

There is not only supply but also demand for such oil. As noted by HUR, there are countries interested in importing Russian oil for processing and exporting it as refined products to external markets. These include, for example, China, India, and Turkey. The sale of petroleum products made from Russian oil is not subject to prohibition.

"Currently, the Russian shadow fleet consists of up to 1000 units of predominantly outdated vessels (with a total deadweight of over 100 million tons) that export oil and petroleum products. In 2023, there were around 600 units. Since the introduction of the price limit on Russian oil in December 2022, Russia has spent