Who will replace Scholz? What will be the outcome of the elections in Germany, and what should Ukraine anticipate?

This Sunday, February 23, Germany will hold early parliamentary elections. These elections are expected to provide insights into Berlin's future strategy in light of the Russian war and pressure from the United States. More details can be found in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

• Polling Intrigues
• The Emotional Component of the Elections and the Migration Issue
• Coalition Options and Cold Calculations
• War and Support for Ukraine

The elections in Germany are taking place during a tumultuous period. The country is in the midst of a political crisis, with three ruling parties (the Social Democrats led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Greens, and the Free Democrats) failing to maintain their coalition or respond effectively to the challenges facing Germany and Europe. Adding to the Russian aggression against Ukraine is the tough policy of the new U.S. President Donald Trump, who seems to disregard European (and Ukrainian) interests in negotiations with Russia.

All of this makes the upcoming elections more crucial than ever. The new German government will need to swiftly address new issues while also tackling longstanding problems. There is a desire and intent to do so, but implementing these plans is far from straightforward. This is partly because these are among the least predictable elections in modern German history.

Polling Intrigues

After four years in opposition, the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have a strong chance of returning to power. According to a ZDF-Politbarometer survey, they currently have the highest ratings at 30%. Following them is the far-right, often described by experts as neo-fascist, Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20%, while the current coalition members, the Social Democratic Party and the Greens, stand at 16% and 14%, respectively.

Complicating the situation is the fact that for the first time in many years, three parties are on the brink of entering the German parliament: The Left Party, the "Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht," which split from the Left Party, and the Free Democratic Party.

The Left Party appears to have the best chance of remaining in parliament, having successfully tapped into the wave of discontent regarding the government’s social policies, especially among the youth. Their ratings have been on the rise lately. The other two parties are facing challenges, according to international relations expert and analyst at the Western Institute in Poznań, Viktor Savinok.

"The Free Democrats are currently suffering in the polls due to their participation in Olaf Scholz's government. On one hand, voters seem to want to punish them for contributing to the fall of the ruling coalition. On the other hand, in a climate where most people are concerned about their well-being, the Free Democrats' promise to reduce taxes is primarily aimed at wealthier segments. This does not resonate with the majority of the population," Savinok told the publication.

"The Alliance of Sarah Wagenknecht tried to create an image as an 'Alternative for Germany' but with a stronger focus on social policy. They had some success during the local elections in three eastern German states last September. However, voters are now inclined to support the 'original' rather than the 'surrogate.' Additionally, Wagenknecht's campaign centers around foreign policy issues, which do not captivate the public's interest as much," he added.

At the same time, 28% of voters have yet to decide who to vote for, according to ZDF data. The situation is further complicated by the high interest in the elections. 87% of respondents expressed strong interest in the events (up from 76% in the previous elections), suggesting a high turnout is to be expected.

According to a YouGov poll from February 18, 13% of Germans plan to make their decision in the coming days, while 7% will decide on the day of the vote.

The Emotional Component of the Elections and the Migration Issue

The current electoral campaign in Germany revolves around three key themes: migration, the economy, and security, as shared by Dmitry Shevchenko, former consul of Ukraine in Munich and now Chancellor of the Ukrainian Free University, with RBC-Ukraine.

"The authorities claim they have done everything right, that there were no other alternatives. The CDU/CSU, of course, criticizes the government. Protest sentiments among the population are high, as evidenced by the polling percentages for the Alternative for Germany," he noted.

The migration issue has been on the agenda in Germany for quite some time. Following the significant wave of refugees from Syria in 2015, others from various African, Middle Eastern, and Asian countries have gradually added to the numbers. Naturally, since 2022, refugees from Ukraine have also been included. Emotions surrounding the migration problem have been heightened by a series of terrorist attacks that have occurred in Germany recently.

Just before Christmas, a Saudi national drove into a crowd at a fair in Magdeburg. Five people died, and over 200 were injured. On January 23, two people, including a two-year-old child, were killed and three others injured in Aschaffenburg in a knife attack carried out by an Afghan national.

Even just before the start of the Munich Security Conference, security was not in good shape. On February 13, an Afghan asylum seeker crashed into a union demonstration, injuring several dozen people and resulting in two deaths, including a two-year-old child.

Traditionally, the far-right Alternative for Germany has capitalized politically on migration and security issues. However, this time, the Christian Democrats have also taken on the problem. Following the attack in Aschaffenburg, their leader Friedrich Merz introduced a bill in parliament proposing a series of tough measures. Among them is allowing federal police to deport foreigners whom German authorities have ordered to leave the country.

The problem is that Merz's party is currently in opposition, and coalition members were reluctant to vote for such an initiative for various reasons. The only party that supported Merz was the Alternative for Germany. This nearly caused a tectonic shift in the country, as there has been a consensus among German politicians not to cooperate with the AfD in any form. By agreeing to support from the AfD, Merz de facto violated this taboo.

So far, there is no cause for concern. After all, the bill was ultimately defeated. Merz faced criticism both from within his party and from political opponents and the public. On February 2, 160,000 protesters took to the streets in Berlin against the removal of the "firewall" against the AfD. Thus, the overall consensus against the far-right remains intact.

Of course, the Trump factor remains. Following his victory in the U.S. elections, the new president's team began to openly support the AfD. Trump's close ally Elon Musk conducted an online interview with party leader Alice Weidel on his platform X. Additionally, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance criticized German parties at the Munich Conference for their refusal to cooperate with the AfD and then met with Weidel in person. However, it currently seems that such actions are more likely to mobilize opponents of the far-right than to increase their popularity.

At the same time, all parties recognize the migration issue. And it is not just about the security aspect. "It is relatively clear to everyone that the migration policy combined with Germany's fairly generous social policy has led to a crisis situation. Because there are many refugees and 'social migrants' (those receiving social benefits). There are also many economic migrants, but they are beneficial. The state is still managing, but everyone understands that this cannot continue indefinitely," Shevchenko remarked to RBC-Ukraine.

This is also significant in the context of Ukrainian refugees, of whom there are about a million in Germany. "The CDU, the Free Democrats, are talking about reducing payments for Ukrainians. There is also talk about additional motivation, or, roughly speaking, coercion to enter the workforce, which everyone is generally discussing," the interlocutor noted.

Coalition Options and Cold Calculations

It is already clear that the Christian Democrats will receive the most mandates. This practically guarantees Friedrich Merz the position of Chancellor. However, a coalition will need to be formed—and as of now, it is unclear who will be potential partners for the CDU/CSU.

"The biggest demand, both within these parties and in society, is for a coalition of the CDU/CSU with the Free Democrats. Unfortunately, this is impossible. The Free Democrats, even if they pass the five-percent threshold, are unlikely to gather enough votes," Shevchenko emphasized.

Another option is a broad coalition between the CDU/CSU and the Social Democrats. But judging by the current ratings, the two parties might not have enough mandates. Therefore, it is likely that a third party will need to be brought into the coalition, which will inherently make such an alliance unstable.

Even among the two main parties, there are many contradictions