Red Wave: How Trump Achieved a Stunning Victory in the Elections

How Donald Trump managed to convince Americans that the U.S. is heading in the wrong direction, and why Kamala Harris's bets in the elections did not work out – read in the column by Milan Lelich, deputy editor-in-chief of RBC-Ukraine.

"Trump's landslide victory" – this phrasing may seem largely exaggerated. Although the final voting results in the U.S. have yet to be determined, it is already clear that there have been many much more overwhelming victories in American electoral history, and Harris, as a losing candidate, showed a relatively decent result.

However, when comparing the actual figures with those announced before election day, Trump's victory indeed appears convincing. All serious sociological services without exception assured the audience of a "historically tight race." Everyone, including American media from conservative to left-liberal, anticipated a grueling, multi-day counting of votes, where the election's fate would be decided by a few thousand or at most tens of thousands of votes. In fact, just a few hours after the polls closed, everything became clear.

Essentially, Trump's victory was determined by two factors that were discussed a year to a year and a half before the elections: the economy and immigration. And it doesn't matter that in the second half of Joe Biden's term, the objective economic situation improved significantly, and the issue of illegal border crossings also became less acute.

But in elections, it is not the numbers and statistics that matter, but people's feelings. And with these feelings, Trump worked masterfully throughout the campaign, tirelessly painting the situation in the country as an absolute, total catastrophe. He converted this into turnout among his supporters and their votes. According to exit poll data from Edison Research, among voters for whom the economy was the main issue in the elections, 79% voted for Trump.

Moreover, contrary to years of political experience, including at the highest state level, Trump successfully managed to "sell" himself as a "candidate for change." This persona works excellently when the majority of the population is dissatisfied with the overall situation in the country – and convincing the population of this was the second part of the task. A task that Trump successfully accomplished – according to exit polls, three out of four Americans believe that the U.S. is moving in the wrong direction. Among them, 61% voted for Trump.

Donald Trump with his family, allies, and supporters (photo: Getty Images)

However, the 2024 election was not only won by Donald Trump. Kamala Harris also lost, and this is the other side of the coin.

The task initially facing Harris appeared extremely challenging. Unexpectedly, without preparation and a prominent political background, entering the presidential campaign just three and a half months before election day, while the Democratic Party was clearly in a downward trend – winning under such conditions would have seemed almost miraculous. Harris could not deliver that miracle, although she genuinely tried.

In essence, none of her campaign's bets in this election paid off. First and foremost – the issue of abortion bans. Democrats hoped that this would mobilize the female electorate, including the apolitical segment, outraged by the government's intrusion into their private lives. Indeed, according to exit polls, a relative majority, 54% of American women, voted for Harris. However, in the previous presidential election in 2020, when the abortion issue was not as pressing, Joe Biden managed to garner more support from American women than Harris did now.

The bet on the candidate's racial identity did not yield results either. Among Black voters, she performed even worse than Biden did four years ago, as did among Latino voters, whom Trump managed to partially sway to his side. It turned out that attitudes towards economic issues, illegal immigration, and topics like LGBTQ rights are more important to these voter categories than their skin color or background.

Appeals to Trump's status as an officially convicted criminal also did not elicit significant feedback – it turned out that this did not "resonate" with the mass electorate. Nor did direct accusations of fascism against Trump have much effect – especially since he countered them with the principle of "who's the fascist now."

Ultimately, Harris could not clearly position herself for the voters and explain how she could simultaneously claim a positive legacy from Biden's presidency while presenting herself as an independent politician with somewhat different views than Biden. Furthermore, the current occupant of the White House did not particularly assist Harris's campaign and, in some instances, even hindered it.

Media and analysts love to use words like "exceptional," "unprecedented," "shocking" to describe various electoral campaigns and their outcomes. But in this case, it would not be an exaggeration. A campaign in which one of the two candidates – Biden – ultimately did not even make it to election day, while the other – Trump – had every chance of not surviving if a sniper's bullet had veered just a couple of centimeters, indeed appears extraordinary.

Likely, Trump's future presidency will also be extraordinary. Especially if Republicans not only take the White House and the Senate but also gain control of the House of Representatives, which they have excellent chances of doing. There are already grounds to speak of a real "red wave" – this term denotes a very successful outcome for the Republican Party in the elections (conversely, the success of the Democrats is termed a "blue wave").

In such a scenario, all central governmental power in the country, legislative, executive, and even judicial (since the U.S. Supreme Court is already under Republican control) would be in the hands of one party, or rather, one person – Trump. And there would be no significant checks and balances, which is particularly dangerous in Trump's case. The red wave is sweeping across the U.S., but its consequences will soon be felt by Ukraine, the Middle East, and the rest of the world.