Prepared for terror: How many missiles and drones has Russia stockpiled for attacks on energy infrastructure?

On November 17, Russia launched its first attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in several months. It is likely that these massive strikes will continue, as the aggressor has accumulated a sufficient number of missiles. How Moscow has altered its strike tactics and how many resources it has for this purpose is detailed in the material by military-political observer of RBC-Ukraine, Ulyana Bezpalko.

Russia has commenced a new campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy. The aggressor country, thanks to increased production and a pause in shelling, has over one and a half thousand missiles in its arsenal, according to data obtained by RBC-Ukraine from informed sources. The change in attack tactics allows the Kremlin to inflict damage on Ukraine's energy system.

Informed sources within the publication predict that at least until the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, Russia will escalate the situation to the maximum and raise the stakes. Therefore, if one were to choose between two scenarios – whether Putin will seek to destroy Ukrainian energy in the coming months or wait for any steps from the new head of the White House – the former appears more realistic.

What Russia has changed in its shelling tactics

Russia has learned lessons from its attacks on Ukrainian energy in 2022-2023. During that time, the enemy struck energy facilities in our country with predictable regularity using "Shaheds," Kh-101 missiles, and less frequently, Kalibr missiles from naval platforms. After a brief blackout in November 2022, Ukrainian energy specialists figured out how to better counter this scenario. Attacks on the energy system continued until March 9 of the following year, but by mid-February, most consumers across the country had round-the-clock electricity.

There were significant concerns that with the 2023 heating season, the aggressor would once again initiate a campaign of strikes against Ukrainian energy. It did begin, albeit with a delay, a few days after Putin's elections in March 2024. Unlike the 2022-2023 season, Moscow revised its tactics and strike schemes. Unfortunately, these new tactics proved effective. It is very likely that during the current campaign, Russia will follow the same plan.

Russia has changed its missile strike tactics (photo: RBC-Ukraine, Vitaliy Nosach)

Firstly, in 2022-2023, each massive attack focused on a specific segment of the energy system. For example, during one strike, the attacks were primarily on thermal power plants, during another – on hydroelectric power stations, and during yet another – on leading substations from nuclear power plants, with "Shaheds" typically targeting transformer substations. Starting in March 2024, Moscow began striking different elements of the network simultaneously, directing not just one but several missiles at once.

Secondly, Russia began to conduct combined strikes. It moved away from the previous schedule, where kamikaze drones terrorized the country at night while cruise missiles were launched during the day. They also began using "Dagger" missiles, ballistic missiles, and "Shaheds" often flew simultaneously with missile weaponry. Given that Patriot systems protect a relatively small area of Ukraine, ballistic missiles could almost certainly hit the chosen energy target and cause damage.

Thirdly, Moscow changed the interval between attacks. If in the fall of 2022, massive strikes occurred once every 7 days, then every 10 days, and in the winter of 2023, every 14 days, starting in the spring of 2024, Russia increased this frequency. For instance, the first strike was on March 21, the next – of similar scale – on March 22, followed by strikes on March 24, 29, and 31. In between, the Kremlin systematically attacked different regions with "Shaheds." Moreover, Russia attempted to achieve as much surprise as possible, occasionally mixing real and simulated launches.

By early April, the government reported that within two weeks, Russia had "knocked out" over six gigawatts of capacity from the Ukrainian energy grid. This included both hydro and coal energy. In thermal generation, the aggressor destroyed 80% of the capacities.

Strikes with lesser intensity continued in April, May, June, July, and August. In September, October, and the first half of November, the Russians focused on launching "Shaheds," with the primary target not being energy. However, on November 17, after a week of training and practicing simulated and combined strikes, Moscow again attempted to attack Ukrainian thermal power plants, hydroelectric power stations, and substations. It is likely that they waited until Ukrainian energy specialists managed to repair some of the damaged facilities.

After this attack, Odessa experienced a local blackout for a day, and scheduled power outages returned to Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Donetsk regions. It can be assumed that Moscow will not stop at this.

What does Moscow have in terms of missiles and "Shaheds"

According to the publication, Russia has managed to accumulate a sufficient number of missiles with a range of over 350 kilometers. Moreover, despite all imposed sanctions, the aggressor country has managed to increase production rates for certain positions over the past year. If a year ago, the monthly volume was around 115-130 strategic missiles, now, according to RBC-Ukraine, it is about 170. Among all positions, Moscow has increased the production of ballistic "Iskanders" the most.

According to sources from the publication, in November, Russia plans to produce about 70 "Iskander-M" missiles, and their stockpiles as of November 20 amount to 350 units. The production plan for cruise missiles to accompany the "Iskanders" in November is 12 units, with a stockpile of 210.

Regarding the Kh-101, their production in November is expected to be around 50 units, with a stockpile of 220 as of November 20. Russia has now begun launching them not only from Tu-95 but also from Tu-160, which was rarely recorded before. During the strike on November 21, the enemy again launched several Kh-101 and "Dagger" missiles at Ukraine. Moscow has managed to accumulate the most Kalibr missiles, with around 390 units in storage as of November 20, and a planned release of 30 units in November.

As for the "Daggers," their stockpile stands at about 70 missiles, with expected production in November at 12 units. Additionally, the aggressor may have around 230 X-22 units in storage (carriers – Tu-22M3). Russia no longer produces these, but monthly conducts deep modernization on about ten of them, resulting in the "X-32." Furthermore, according to RBC-Ukraine, Moscow may also have around 45 North Korean ballistic KN-23 missiles in reserve.

Infographic: RBC-Ukraine

Another challenge for Ukraine is the Russian-Iranian "Shaheds." Since September, the aggressor has launched dozens of these kamikaze drones almost every night across various regions of the country to deplete and scout our air defense. According to RBC-Ukraine, not all of those launched are the so-called "Geran," as they came in combination with other long-range UAVs, like "Gerbera," for a larger salvo. However, the volume of production of the "Shahed - Geran" drones alone allows the enemy to terrorize Ukraine every night. According to RBC-Ukraine, Russia, using components supplied by Iran, plans to assemble about 900 units of these drones per month. This is three times more than last year's figures.

All these figures confirm that no sanctions will prevent Russia from launching massive strikes against the critical infrastructure of our country if it has such a plan. Therefore, the resilience of our network this autumn-winter season primarily depends on Ukrainian warriors, air defense systems, the skill of our energy workers, and the availability of at least some protection for energy facilities.