Storage facilities are dwindling, and imports are at risk. Will Ukraine have enough gas to last through the end of winter?

Ukraine has not stocked up on gas in advance, and gas production has decreased due to Russian shelling. Slovakia threatens to cut off gas imports. Will Ukraine be able to complete the heating season without significant issues under these conditions? This is explored in the material by RBC-Ukraine special correspondent Yuriy Doshchatov.

Russians have started shelling gas production facilities

Will there be enough gas or not?

How real is Fico's threat to cut off gas supplies?

The energy supply situation in Ukraine has significantly worsened by the end of the heating season. The onset of cold weather in February has increased electricity consumption. The remaining generation and distribution capacities after the shelling can no longer fully meet the country's needs.

After a brief pause in January, the Russians resumed attacks on energy facilities in February. Since the beginning of the month, emergency shutdowns have been necessary, followed by restrictions on electricity supplies for industry and business.

Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko even stated that the real danger now is not so much the cold, but the destruction of infrastructure and power plants. "The only thing that affects (the energy supply situation - ed.) is the consequences of the attacks. Unfortunately, these attacks happen every day. I want to tell you that on Sunday (February 2 - ed.) we lost significant generating capacity," - said Halushchenko. He also noted that the level of damage to the facility is substantial, and it is still unclear how long it will take to restore it.

Russians have started shelling gas production facilities

At the beginning of the month, the Russians expanded their target list, actively shelling gas infrastructure facilities. While last year, strikes were aimed at gas storage facilities, in early February, state gas production facilities were severely damaged due to a massive attack. On the 11th, the attack was repeated, affecting not only "Naftogaz" facilities but also private production by DTEK in the Poltava region.

The goal of these shellings is to complicate the use of gas for heating during the cold period.

The Russians approached the shelling of gas infrastructure strategically. At the end of last year, the strikes on storage facilities frightened foreign companies, leading them to refuse to inject gas into Ukrainian UGS facilities, a source familiar with the situation told the publication. It must be acknowledged that due to security concerns, there was little hope for gas storage by non-residents, but UGS facilities lost even the minimal volumes that could have been stored.

Then, in February 2025, as the cold set in, gas production facilities came under fire. This reduced production volumes and necessitated an increase in gas withdrawals from storage. However, gas reserves in UGS were already minimal, as the NAK did not import gas during the summer, hoping to get through the heating season with domestic production.

Naftogaz only began purchasing gas from the EU in September. Now imports need to be increased and gas is being purchased at nearly double the price, instead of the previous $300 per thousand cubic meters.

Furthermore, according to Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko, additional funds must be sought to purchase at least 1 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of the year or a commodity grant for the same volume. According to RBC-Ukraine, Halushchenko plans to discuss this issue next week in Brussels.

Will there be enough gas or not?

Former head of the Gas Transmission System Operator, Sergey Makogon, believes that the reason gas needs to be bought now at high prices is the mistake of former NAK head Alexey Chernyshov. "The reason is that Naftogaz and Ukrtransgaz are now urgently purchasing gas at sky-high prices - this is a misguided decision by Naftogaz’s management not to import gas during the summer," - he stated.

Alexey Chernyshov, who led Naftogaz until December 2024, categorically rejects all accusations. In a comment to RBC-Ukraine, he stated that there is enough gas in storage to ensure balance even under conditions of reduced production due to shelling. However, some volumes do need to be imported for this.

He claims that NAK, using gas from "Ukrgazdobycha," provided the entire consumption volume for the PSO category – the population, local government bodies, and heat supply companies. "There is also enough for commercial gas consumption," - he noted.

"As a result of the shelling, production has indeed significantly decreased. And I hope it will be restored. But this does not critically affect the balance situation. The point is… There is less gas in UGS than usual, but it is sufficient," - insists Chernyshov.

He believes that the current gas withdrawal volume does not significantly differ from the standard February indicators. "In February, we always have such withdrawals. In 10 days, the cold will recede, and the withdrawal will decrease. Even with the existing situation, we have very high chances of almost 100% getting through this winter with a gas surplus. Yes, it will be less than usual, but these are the risks of war," - added the former head of NAK.

However, it is worth noting that if NAK had purchased more gas in the summer, the company's import costs would be significantly lower now. By the way, the October memorandum with the IMF stated that NAK intends to additionally import up to 2-3 billion cubic meters of gas for the 2024-25 heating season. In the December version of this document, such plans were no longer present. Gas imports were only planned in case of necessity, and possible volumes were not defined.

There is no open data on the volumes and daily gas withdrawals from UGS. But even based on Makogon’s information that in cold days the withdrawal volume can reach 90 million cubic meters per day (according to Chernyshov, this is significantly exaggerated), the reserves would be sufficient for almost a month.

Several sources from the publication, familiar with the real situation, also assure that the situation is not critical for now. "There will be enough gas until the end of the heating season. Moreover, there are at most two weeks of cold left," - said one of the sources.

How real is Fico's threat to cut off gas supplies?

To avoid depleting gas reserves to a critical level, NAK and "Ukrgazdobycha" have now intensified their gas purchases in Europe. However, just a few days ago, almost immediately after the attacks by Russians on gas production facilities in Ukraine, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico threatened to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine through his country. This was his response to the cessation of gas transit from the Russian Federation through Ukraine and effectively confirmed that Fico's actions are coordinated with the Russian authorities.

Slovakia currently has to receive gas through the "Turkish Stream," which is more expensive for Bratislava than through Ukraine. "We have the moral right to consider ways to stop supplies to Ukraine of about 7.5 million cubic meters of gas per day," - said Fico.

However, RBC-Ukraine sources in the energy market consider such statements to be nothing more than hot air. "Firstly, if this happens, it would be a serious violation of European rules (the ENTSOG rules - the European Network of Transmission System Operators - ed.). Secondly, this cannot happen because the Slovak operator is a private company with an owner in the Czech Republic," - explained a source from the publication.

But if we assume that supplies through Slovakia are somehow cut off, gas needs can be met through supplies from other countries. "Poland can provide 7 million cubic meters, Hungary – 9 million, and Romania – 7 million cubic meters. This would be enough," - said the source.

There are one and a half months left until the end of the heating season, and the cold will recede in the third decade of February. Under these conditions, even with the existing risks of shelling, gas reserves are unlikely to reach critical levels – buffer gas will remain untouched. This is the belief of almost all sources in both the government and the gas market with whom the publication spoke. However, to prepare for the next heating season, gas imports will need to be significantly increased, as transitional reserves will be at minimal levels in the spring.