Black Swan: What does the relocation of the "Ramstein" meeting with Biden mean for Ukraine?
On October 12, a "Ramstein" format meeting was supposed to take place in Germany, featuring the presidents of the USA and Ukraine, Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelensky, along with many other world leaders. However, Biden postponed the trip due to the need to prepare for a devastating hurricane in the USA. RBK-Ukraine explains what this means for the future plans of the Ukrainian government and diplomacy.
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At the 25th meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, better known as the "Ramstein group," around 20 heads of state and government were present. This would have been the first "Ramstein" held at such a high level—typically, each participating country is represented by its defense minister.
The meeting was expected to be the second event in the context of presenting Volodymyr Zelensky's "victory plan." The first step was to present it to US President Joe Biden and presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Additionally, a meeting between Biden and other NATO leaders was anticipated. Therefore, the presence of the US president in Germany was highly awaited. With Biden soon leaving office, a significant gesture towards Ukraine was expected as a highlight of his presidency, which could be recorded as part of his "political legacy."
However, unexpectedly, Biden postponed the trip. The official reason was the powerful hurricane "Milton," which would hit Florida within hours. Simultaneously, the USA was recovering from another strong hurricane—"Helen."
At another time, this might not have led to the cancellation of the trip. But now, as the final stage of the presidential election campaign continues, a visit to Europe amid a natural disaster in the USA would have negatively impacted Kamala Harris's standing. At the very least, Donald Trump would not miss the opportunity to promote the narrative, "while Americans suffer from the hurricane, the Democrats went to help Ukraine."
This turn of events became a real "black swan," meaning an unexpected occurrence that alters or at least adjusts preliminary calculations in Ukraine's diplomacy and that of its allies. The postponement could play out either to Ukraine's detriment or benefit.
Political aspect: Biden's concerns
Ukrainian diplomats, along with Biden's advisors, appeal to the notion of "Biden's political legacy." This issue is also significant for the current US president's team.
"The theme of legacy began to be raised by the advisors across each of the president's tracks. They want his term to conclude with something meaningful, with specific decisions made on each track. And Ukraine is one of them," says Victoria Vdovichenko, co-director of the Future of Ukraine program at the Cambridge University Geopolitics Center, to RBK-Ukraine.
The challenge for Ukrainian diplomacy is to convey to the White House that Biden must leave his mark in history specifically regarding Ukraine. This is not an easy task.
Vdovichenko's contacts in US expert circles indicate that Biden has a strong aversion to Ukraine's NATO membership and discussions surrounding it. This was clearly evident during the NATO summits in Vilnius and Washington. However, now the "ice has broken," and there are attempts to revive this idea.
According to RBK-Ukraine, dialogue with Biden's team on this matter continued until the last moment and will persist. There is still additional time to "push" the US president.
In addition to dealing with the aftermath of the hurricanes, Biden's team has another reason to postpone the trip to Germany.
Consequences of the hurricane in the USA (photo: Getty Images)
Israel began a ground operation in Lebanon against "Hezbollah." In response, the group's sponsor—Iran—attacked Israel with missiles. The situation is currently in limbo, and it is unclear whether the escalation will continue.
"Right now, everything will be directed towards the Middle East, and Americans understand well that dealing with that area is much more complex than the Ukraine track, meaning that significant efforts will be directed there, as well as media and expert attention," says Vdovichenko.
In this context, the postponement of the meeting in Ramstein, oddly enough, could benefit Ukraine; however, much depends on whether there will be escalation in the Middle East or if the situation will calm down for a while.
When it comes to Biden's political legacy, he and his team will also consider the election context, says Dmitry Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.
"Regarding political statements, I believe this could be possible. But it is no secret that in the context of the election process, if it is beneficial, particularly for the Democratic Party. And Biden is certainly part of this election process and naturally plays to his successor, Kamala Harris. However, I don't think anything like that could happen specifically in the Ramstein format," says Zhmailo.
Military aspect: winter weapons
The "Ramstein" format has always been more about collaboration and resolving technical issues related to assistance for Ukraine. According to Zhmailo, the meeting on October 12 was prepared with the understanding that the USA would soon be busy with domestic politics.
Before the "Ramstein," a more limited meeting was also planned with the leaders of the USA, Germany, France, and the UK. As announced by the German Foreign Ministry, they intended to focus on conveying to Ukraine that "military and financial support will continue, as well as to find ways to achieve a fair and sustainable peace."
"Globally, the "Ramstein" format is undergoing very important changes because this was essentially the line of the United States, and globally, official Kyiv (since America is our largest donor for arms supplies) has always demanded leadership specifically from the USA. It is clear that during this period of uncertainty (after the elections in the USA), European partners, cooperation formats, and assistance from NATO will gain more weight. But at the Ramstein, they should definitely allocate some substantial assistance to us," says Zhmailo.
According to him, discussions still revolve around long-range weapons—ATACMS, Storm Shadow, Scalp, and JASSM. Additionally, issues concerning artillery shells, air defense munitions, and expediting the supply of F-16 aircraft are on the agenda.
"The main efforts of the Ukrainian delegation are to push a bit beyond the current framework. This is part of President Zelensky's victory plan. To begin to turn the situation in our favor, we need to break away from the established practices that currently exist," the expert states.
Following the presentation of the "victory plan" during the visit to the USA on October 6, a new Ukrainian delegation headed by Chief of the General Staff Anatoliy Bargilevych and Deputy Prime Minister for European Integration, Justice Minister Olha Stefanishyna, was sent there. Additionally, the Commander-in-Chief Syrskiy and Defense Minister Umerov are working with partners.
"Preparatory work continues, particularly with Bargilevych's delegation, the Chief of the General Staff, who is currently briefing our Western partners to finalize aid packages, considering that there will definitely be a certain break period. And once again, it is possible that the North Atlantic Alliance will now play a more significant role in supplying everything necessary for Ukraine," says Zhmailo.
For Ukraine, the postponement of "Ramstein" is an unpleasant development but not critically severe at this point. Communication with allies continues, despite some political and other nuances.
This material incorporates publications from CNN, Bloomberg, comments from Victoria Vdovichenko, co-director of the Future of Ukraine program at the Cambridge University Geopolitics Center, and Dmitry Zhmailo, executive director of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation.