Storm and Pressure: How Trump has been "pushing for peace" with Ukraine, Russia, and Europe for the past month.
Today marks exactly one month since Donald Trump returned to the White House. During this time, he has managed to renew contacts with Russia regarding the end of the war in Ukraine, push Europe to the background, and send mixed signals to Kyiv. Read about how Trump's team is working to conclude the war Russia is waging against Ukraine and the challenges arising from this in the material from RBK-Ukraine.
CONTENT:
Since his inauguration, Donald Trump has been operating in "turbo mode." With dizzying speed, he is changing the U.S. internally, attempting to force key American allies into concessions. The U.S. president is also taking this approach regarding the conclusion of the war Russia is waging against Ukraine. On one hand, this has indeed yielded initial results; on the other hand, – such tactics have already created problems for Ukraine and Europe.
Diplomatic Inclusivity or Broadening the Framework
Even before his inauguration, Trump appointed a special representative for Ukraine and Russia to oversee the war's conclusion – retired General Keith Kellogg. However, for a long time, neither he nor other members of Trump's team, despite numerous meetings with their Ukrainian counterparts, had a clear vision of how to end the conflict.
Whereas Trump previously claimed peace could be achieved in 24 hours, Kellogg later extended the timeframe to 100 days. On February 15, Kellogg announced "180 days to engage all parties." But despite these shifts in deadlines, Kellogg and his team have not been idle. They have involved new players in the negotiations, and the discussions now cover a broader range of issues.
Responsibility for U.S. contacts with Ukraine and Russia has been divided between two individuals. Keith Kellogg continues to communicate with Ukraine, while Trump’s special representative for Middle Eastern affairs, Stephen Witkoff, is handling relations with Russia. It is unclear when exactly he began focusing on the Russian direction, but on February 12, Witkoff flew to Moscow to retrieve American hostage Mark Vogel, who was held by the Putin regime. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Trump’s national security advisor Mike Waltz are also involved in the negotiations as part of their official duties.
The topics of future agreements to end the war have also expanded. From the Ukrainian side, discussions include rare earth metals and other critical elements needed by the U.S. It is believed that the business wing surrounding Trump insisted on quickly signing such an agreement – ideally at the Munich Security Conference from February 14-16. However, the Ukrainian leadership succeeded in ensuring that the agreement is properly refined, particularly concerning security guarantees for Ukraine.
From the Russian side, the discussions revolve around cooperation in the economy and investments, as well as issues that "represent a common geopolitical interest." Notably, direct negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia involved Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Putin's foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov, and the head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev.
At least regarding the contours of peace, Trump's team has engaged players who are not directly involved in the war – Europe, during a significant European tour of American leaders. However, Keith Kellogg openly stated that Europe would not be present during direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Saudi Arabia has also been involved – as a negotiation platform and as a party that can lower oil prices as a means of pressure on Russia.
From Abstractions to Specifics
Last week, the behind-the-scenes negotiations between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia moved into the public sphere. The U.S. president first spoke with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, then – informed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky about the conversation. Simultaneously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent visited Kyiv – to promote the agreement on rare earth metals. The agreement was also discussed during the meeting between Zelensky and U.S. Vice President JD Vance at the Munich Security Conference. However, according to numerous sources from RBK-Ukraine, the discussions in Munich mainly revolved around "talks about talks," without much specificity.
Subsequent negotiations between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia, under the auspices of the heads of their diplomatic departments – U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, were also largely general. However, there were concrete agreements – regarding the normalization of the work of diplomatic missions and the appointment of responsible parties from both sides "to begin work on the swift cessation of the conflict."
According to Zelensky, Kyiv was not aware of the substantive content of these negotiations. "Ukraine views any negotiations about Ukraine without Ukraine as having no results. And we cannot recognize any matters or agreements about us without us," – Zelensky stated on February 18.
Furthermore, President Zelensky postponed his visit to Saudi Arabia as a diplomatic gesture, where talks between the U.S. and Russia had previously taken place.
At the same time, on February 19, Keith Kellogg arrived in Kyiv. He will be in Kyiv for three days and will have a series of meetings with Ukrainian leadership and a trip to the front. Just as the U.S. spoke with Russia without Ukraine in Saudi Arabia, the American envoy is speaking without Russia in Kyiv. However, Kellogg emphasized upon his arrival that his main task would be to "listen."
Haste and Tactical Miscalculations
Alongside negotiations at various levels, the American leadership is transmitting a series of alarming messages that align with the spirit of Russian propaganda. On the evening of February 18 in Kyiv, Donald Trump stated during a briefing that he likes Zelensky, but "there is a leadership in Ukraine that has allowed the war to continue." According to Trump, Zelensky's approval rating has dropped to 4%.
"I think that if we sit at the table, then the Ukrainian people will decide that it has been a long time since there were elections. This is not Russia telling Ukraine that they need elections; it is an objective situation," – Trump declared.
On February 19, Trump reiterated his points, additionally referring to Zelensky as a "dictator without elections."
Volodymyr Zelensky called the U.S. president's statements misinformation. "Since we are talking about 4%, we have seen this misinformation. We have seen that it comes from the Russian Federation. We have evidence that these figures are discussed between America and Russia," – Zelensky responded.
Trump's statements may stem from either his insufficient understanding of the depth of the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation in the broadest sense or be part of the aforementioned "tactics of aggression." Ultimately, this has also been the case with the "end of the war in 24 hours." At the same time, this creates additional challenges for Ukraine – not only due to the escalation of domestic political confrontation but also in the context of negotiations.
"This is Trump's style. He holds everyone to high standards. Even with allies, he is sometimes much harsher than with the enemies of the United States. But on the other hand, in doing so, he gives Putin hope that he will succeed, because Putin wanted to talk about Ukraine with America, and without Europe," – said RBK-Ukraine's Executive Director of the Center for Applied Political Studies "Penta," Alexander Leonov.
The U.S. leadership has previously stated that negotiations with Russia should take place from a position of strength. However, the problem is that such statements from Trump, on the contrary, weaken Ukraine's position. And this is not the first time. During last week's European tour, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegset tossed two trump cards that could have been used in negotiations with Russia: the issue of Ukraine's NATO membership and the return to the borders of 2014. Overall, haste in concluding the war could backfire on the U.S.
"Trump's attempts to act in such a tough manner are more likely to destroy the opportunities for reaching any agreements than to bring them closer. Because the only person who can stop the war – is Putin. Everything depends on him. And if you give Putin hope that he can win, then I think Putin will be looking for ways to continue to pressure both Ukraine and Europe," – Leonov is convinced.
In this situation, the Ukrainian leadership must establish communication with the U.S. and counter Russian attempts to seize the initiative in negotiations. Another