The capture of Great Novoselki could indicate Russia's offensive plans for spring and summer, according to ISW.
The capture of Velyka Novosilka is likely to give the Russian command an opportunity to decide whether to redeploy the Eastern Military District (EMD) units to other operational areas. In turn, any redeployment in the coming weeks will indicate where the enemy will advance in the spring and summer.
This information is reported by RBK-Ukraine citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts state that the EMD units of the RF have been the main combat force in the areas of Uledar and Velyka Novosilka since at least the beginning of 2023. They repelled the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in 2023 and later intensified offensive operations in this area in the fall of 2024.
Specifically, EMD units participated in the capture of Uledar in September and October 2024 and, over the following three months, successfully used the capture of the settlement to advance north towards Kurakhove and west towards Velyka Novosilka.
Meanwhile, ISW believes that capturing Velyka Novosilka will provide the RF command with a decision-making moment, during which the Russian military command may pursue several courses of action. In particular, this settlement is protected from a counterattack by the AFU, as the Mokri Yaly River is nearby.
Given this, analysts suggest that the RF command may decide to keep EMD units in the western part of the Donetsk region and continue the offensive towards the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions, which runs north and west of Velyka Novosilka. This decision would indicate that RF troops prioritize advancing towards the administrative border as quickly as possible, compared to other offensive directions in the Donetsk region or other frontline areas.
However, it remains unclear how much combat power the EMD units still retain after participating in intensive operations for more than six months.
The Russian military command may also retain some EMD elements in the Velyka Novosilka area to continue limited attacks and tie down Ukrainian forces in that area, while redeploying the majority of the EMD to another frontline area.
"Currently, RF troops are intensifying offensive operations in the Kupiansk, Borove, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions and continue efforts to eliminate the remnants of Ukrainian footholds in the Kurakhove direction and in the Kursk region," ISW writes.
Ukrainian officials have also recently warned that Russian troops may resume offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia region in 2025.
In summary, experts concluded that the Russian military command may redeploy EMD units to any of these directions, and their redeployment will serve as an indicator of the priority directions for the Russian military command in the spring and summer of 2025.
Fighting for Velyka Novosilka
Recall that yesterday Russian media disseminated information that their troops allegedly captured Velyka Novosilka.
However, the spokesperson for the Joint Forces Operation "Khortytsia," Viktor Trehubov, denied this statement, saying that the battle for the settlement is still ongoing. Moreover, Ukrainian troops and positions remain there, and the AFU managed to avoid encirclement.
On the same day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he had sent the commander of the Ground Forces, Major General Mykhailo Drapaty, to lead the Joint Forces Operation "Khortytsia" in the Donetsk region, to strengthen the command staff of the Ukrainian troops.