The strike on Dnipro with the "Oreshnik" ballistic missile and statements from Russian leader Vladimir Putin, according to analysts, do not indicate any significant changes in the military capabilities of the aggressor country or an increased risk of nuclear weapon use.
As noted in the report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the occupiers regularly launch ballistic missiles such as "Iskander," hypersonic ballistic missiles like "Kinzhal," as well as X-101 cruise missiles, which are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Previous attacks targeted industrial capabilities and critical infrastructure facilities, including those in Dnipro, causing substantial damage.
ISW pointed out that this attack is distinguished from others only by the new missile "Oreshnik." The invaders demonstrated a munition that breaks into several parts, inflicting even greater damage. Furthermore, this was an attempt by the Kremlin to amplify the risk of a nuclear threat.
The Institute reassured that the West possesses reliable deterrent tools against such threats, and thus Putin's nuclear saber-rattling should not deter allied leaders from continuing to provide assistance to Ukraine.
"In September 2024, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns warned Western politicians not to fear Putin's nuclear rhetoric, describing him as a 'bully' who 'will continue to rattle his saber from time to time,'" the analysts added.
Experts believe that Putin's statement from November 21 is such saber-rattling, and the recent threats are directed against the West, which has lifted restrictions on the Ukrainian Armed Forces' use of long-range weapons against Russia.
However, ISW reminded that the Defense Forces have long been striking the occupied Crimea, which Russia considers part of its territory. Since April 2023, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have regularly targeted the occupiers' military facilities on the peninsula using American ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles.
As pointed out by the Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin's rhetoric about "red lines" has been extremely inconsistent, undermining the overall narrative of escalation.
"Putin independently and consistently escalates the war, refusing to take retaliatory measures each time Western states deepen their support for Ukraine. The dictator previously threatened severe retaliation if Western countries supplied Ukraine with rocket artillery, tanks, combat aircraft, and the capability to strike Russia. He constantly shifted the goalposts whenever the West labeled his threats as bluff," the analysts concluded.
Use of the "Oreshnik" missile by Russia
As reported by UNIAN, on November 21, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that on November 20, the latest medium-range missile "Oreshnik" with a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead was used to strike the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. He described the strike on Dnipro as a "response to recent ATACMS and Storm Shadow missile strikes on Russian territory."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky noted that the use of the new experimental medium-range ballistic missile "Oreshnik" by Russia is a slap in the face to all those who strive for genuine peace from the Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin.