Source: ISW
Details: Russian troops continued to suffer significant losses in January 2025, despite a slower pace of advancement compared to the previous months at the end of 2024.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported on February 3 that in January 2025, Russian troops incurred 48,240 losses—more than three Russian motorized rifle divisions—making January the second month with the highest losses since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
According to geolocation data from ISW, Russian forces advanced 498 square kilometers in Ukraine and the Kursk region in January, which is approximately 16.1 square kilometers per day. Available data indicates that Russian troops suffered about 96 losses per square kilometer of captured territory.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense stated that Russian forces experienced 48,670 losses in December 2024—this was the highest monthly loss figure since the beginning of the full-scale invasion—and according to ISW estimates, Russian troops gained a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024.
Verbatim ISW: "The reduction of captured territory by approximately 100 square kilometers from December 2024 to January 2025, combined with a similar monthly loss rate, indicates that Russian troops are suffering equally high losses despite lesser territorial progress in the near term."
Details: ISW previously noted that the advancement of Russian troops slowed from November 2024 to December 2024.
Verbatim: "According to preliminary assessments by ISW, the Russian military command likely suffered record personnel losses from September 2024 to November 2024 to facilitate greater territorial acquisition, but it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such losses if the pace of Russian troop advancement continues to decrease as they approach better-defended settlements such as Pokrovsk."
Key Findings from ISW on February 3:
- In January 2025, Russian troops continued to sustain significant losses despite a slower pace of advancement compared to previous months at the end of 2024.
- Reports indicate that on the night of February 2-3, Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil and gas infrastructure targets in the Volgograd and Astrakhan regions using drones.
- Ukrainian forces are continually innovating in their use of drones to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and achieve effects on the battlefield.
- The United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine expressed concern over the "sharp increase in reports of executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war."
- Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on February 3 that Ukraine has begun implementing organizational reforms aimed at transitioning the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a "corps structure."
- Unknown individuals killed Armen Sarkisyan, the founder of the special operations battalion "Arbat," who had participated in Russia's hybrid actions and the invasion of Ukraine since 2014.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova, while Russian forces advanced near Kupiansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo, and towards the Dnipro.
- The Russian government is expanding the federal program "Time of Heroes," aimed at appointing Kremlin-selected veterans to state positions in the occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia.