Will Ukraine get through winter without an energy crisis? Scenarios, forecasts, and dilemmas to consider.

At that time, significant damage occurred to the energy and heating infrastructure in Odessa and Kryvyi Rih. The power grids of Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Volyn regions were also affected.

On the night of November 26, another attack from the Russians occurred, this time involving 188 drones, including "Shahed" drones. The energy infrastructure of the Ternopil region was now impacted.

What can be expected next, and are there reasons to hope for an improvement in the situation? Hromadske investigated.

The High Art of Emergency Repairs

“The situation in the energy sector, especially in certain regions, worsened after the massive Russian shelling on November 17, which targeted   power plants and main transmission lines,” explains Svitlana Mykhailovska, Deputy Director of the “European Business Association.” “Moreover, several substations that provide external power to nuclear power plants were damaged, leading to a reduction in electricity production at these plants. Consequently, additional electricity restrictions are being implemented during restoration work to maintain the integrity of the energy system.”

However, starting from November 24, there was a noticeable relief—power outages became shorter, and in some areas, they ceased altogether. Hromadske's sources in the state energy system note that this is all thanks to Ukrainian energy workers, who have learned to effectively eliminate the consequences of substantial shelling within just a few days. Specialists from the state companies “Energoatom” and “Ukrenergo” are working on this.

A lot depends on the funding of these works, as it is essential not only to pay the specialists but also to have the necessary equipment. Ordering it after an attack is too late; such equipment should be kept in reserve in advance.

“There are no problems with personnel or spare parts,” says a source from the state energy system. “But a single transformer at a nuclear power plant is as large as a big truck, making it quite difficult to replace or repair.”

In response to the alarming situation, international partners decided to finance repair works, creating a buffer. The European Commission will allocate €62.8 million to DTEK Group owned by Rinat Akhmetov, while the U.S. government will add another $46.1 million.

Another recovery sponsor, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, has refused to finance repair works for DTEK due to its ownership.

In Odessa, which suffered the most from the recent bombings, restoration works are still ongoing, although the worst—suspension of municipal transport—is already behind.

“Restoration work continues in Odessa; there was no power supply at all on the first day,” says Hennadiy Ryabtsev, an energy expert and professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School. “However, shelling is just one factor; the second is the air temperature. The lower the temperature, the more likely it is that scheduled outages will be introduced.”

City authorities in Kharkiv, where Russians destroyed the main source of electricity—local CHPP-5—back in March, have come up with an original initiative. Mayor Ihor Terekhov announced the creation of a Kharkiv “energy island,” meaning a concept of complete self-sufficiency for the city in accessing electricity and heat through the installation of block-modular boilers, generators, and cogeneration units.

Similar ideas are already being developed in smaller towns—Dolina in Ivano-Frankivsk region and Slavutych in Kyiv region. Such solutions require funding, which the city itself must find, rather than relying on the central government.

“This is a trend,” notes Sviatoslav Pavliuk, a member of the Association of Energy Efficient Cities of Ukraine. “Kharkiv is a very vulnerable city because all generation is essentially preserved on the right bank of the Dnieper, so their attempt to create an energy island is absolutely the right move.”

Where to Find Additional Electricity?

Before 2022, Ukrainian nuclear power plants had a capacity of 13.8 GW; now it is 7.7 GW, according to estimates from the analytical company DiXi Group. Thermal power stations had a pre-war capacity of 17.1 GW, and currently, it is 3.6 GW. The capacity of hydroelectric stations has fallen from 6.6 GW to 3.4 GW, and renewable energy sources (solar and wind) have decreased from 9.6 GW to 6.9 GW.

In 2024 alone, the Ukrainian energy system lost more than 9 GW of capacity. This is a significant amount—four times more than the electrical system of Albania. Consequently, industrial electricity consumption has nearly halved—partly due to occupation and partly due to reduced activity compared to pre-war 2021. Households have not made such drastic reductions—in 2024, they consume approximately the same 34 billion kWh per year as before the war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to install an additional 1 GW of capacity by the end of 2024, while the Ministry of Energy went even further, noting an additional 3 GW. The Ministry believes that it is essential to complete the construction of new units at the Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plant specifically for this purpose. However, so far, only about 900 MW of capacity has been installed at critical infrastructure facilities in Ukraine, making the official plans seem unrealistic.

The company “Ukrenergo” held auctions to install an additional 600 MW, but these are mainly small gas turbine units that are unlikely to be operational before 2025, as contracting and delivery, along with the installation of each unit, can take nine months.

When donors—such as the European Commission or the Japanese government—provide Ukrainian communities with such units for building distributed generation, it is always uncertain what configuration they will arrive in and what additional components will need to be sourced. Additionally, the process of connecting such a unit to the gas infrastructure is quite cumbersome, explains Sviatoslav Pavliuk from the Association of Energy Efficient Cities. Therefore, this will not resolve the electricity crisis quickly.

“In general, to meet the country's needs with small units, the entire industry of the European Union had two years, but there is also a queue; it is a kind of market, ready solutions are not just sitting on the shelf,” adds the expert. This means that currently, there is a limited number of gas turbine units in Europe, and Ukraine has only just begun to form demand for them.

“If we are talking about restoring old facilities, such as thermal power plants and hydroelectric stations that were damaged, it is relatively feasible, but if we discuss building new generation facilities, distributed generation, as mentioned, unfortunately, the pace is currently not fast enough,” notes Darija Orlova, an analyst at the consulting firm Expro Electricity.

Meanwhile, “Ukrenergo” has agreed with the European Union to increase electricity import capacities to Ukraine from neighboring countries from 1.7 GW to 2.1 GW starting December 1, yet the actual import volumes have significantly decreased. If in October, imports amounted to approximately 200 thousand MWh, in November, it fell to around 50 thousand.

Ukrainian companies simply lack the experience to purchase imported electricity for their needs, explains Hennadiy Ryabtsev, an energy expert. This is because “Ukrenergo” provides the technical capability for imports, but the businesses must pay for it by purchasing the resource from traders—both private and state-owned.

“How did they buy this energy before? It was simply available. They just bought it on the market, but now it may not be there,” says the expert.

He also mentions two bureaucratic reasons holding back the development of the electricity import industry. These involve two “stuck” documents in the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities and in the Cabinet of Ministers, which need to be approved for the proper organization of electricity imports. The first document should establish new price caps on electricity, while the second should form a list of consumers protected from energy threats.

The importance of proper pricing policy in the electricity market is also highlighted by the “European Business Association.”

“Building a new generation is currently a complex task, particularly due to debts in the energy market. In this case, it is important for businesses to rely on the government's plans for debt repayment to investors. Moreover, the development of generation is hindered by price caps established back in 2019, which make effective imports impossible. A cost-reflective tariff for “Ukrenergo” is also needed,” emphasizes Svitlana Mykhailovska, Deputy Director of the EBA.

Scenarios for the Development of the Electricity Crisis

What can we expect regarding electricity this winter? The analytical company DiXi Group has developed three basic scenarios, each