The world Trump envisions: Is there a chance to end the war by 2025?

Trump and Putin's Conversation

Unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, who focused on military aid to Ukraine, Donald Trump has opted for a diplomatic approach to halt the Russian invasion. The activity from the White House regarding Ukraine indicates that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict is one of the highest foreign policy priorities for the newly elected U.S. president.

During a conversation with journalists aboard Air Force One last Saturday, Donald Trump announced significant progress in peace negotiations and acknowledged that he had already spoken with Vladimir Putin about Ukraine over the phone. Discussing American military assistance to Ukraine, Trump informed reporters that “he wants to reach an agreement with Zelensky regarding access to rare earth minerals and gas in Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees in any potential peace settlement.”

At the same time, the U.S. president refrained from commenting on the intentions to continue military support for Ukraine. Currently, all military aid that Ukraine receives from the U.S. is provided under the Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan Support Act, passed by Congress in 2024 at Joe Biden's proposal. In his conversation with reporters on the plane, Donald Trump assured that he would end the war through diplomatic means.

“I have always had good relations with Putin. This war would never have started if I were president. I hope we can end this soon. People are dying every day. Young, beautiful soldiers are being killed. Young people, like my sons. On both sides. I want this to stop,” said Donald Trump to a reporter from the New York Post.

The U.S. president stated that he has a concrete plan to end the war. He mentioned that Putin allegedly also “wants people to stop dying.” He asked his national security advisor Mike Waltz to arrange meetings with Zelensky and Putin.

Meanwhile, the spokesperson for the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, stated that he does not have information about a phone conversation between Putin and Trump. Peskov declined to confirm or deny such a conversation, while noting that with Donald Trump's return to the White House, contacts from the Kremlin with the new presidential administration in Washington “are being conducted through various channels.” There is still no mention of a phone call with the U.S. president on the Russian leader's website, nor on the White House's site.

The Peace Process is Ongoing, as is the War

Donald Trump is trying to establish communication not only with Vladimir Putin. Last week, the U.S. president noted that he is also in contact with Vladimir Zelensky, with whom he announced a personal meeting in Washington soon.

In an interview with the British channel ITV News, published last Sunday, Vladimir Zelensky confirmed that preparations for the meeting with the U.S. president are indeed ongoing. When a journalist asked Zelensky what he would do if Donald Trump tried to impose peace on unfavorable terms for Ukraine, the Ukrainian leader responded quite confidently. He said he does not even want to think about the possibility of a conflict between Kyiv and Washington over opposing positions regarding a peaceful settlement.

“We cannot be in opposition to the United States of America. It is not beneficial for us — a country at war. And it is not beneficial for President Trump, who is the president of a strong America. A victory for Putin is not in his interest. If there is a confrontation between the positions of Ukraine and America, only Putin will benefit from it. A victory for Putin is a loss for the Western world. For both Europe and America,” noted Zelensky.

Russia's Conditions Remain Unchanged

On Sunday, Russia's representative to the UN Security Council, Vasily Nebenzya, stated that Moscow is ready for peace negotiations on the condition of “considering Russian interests.” Russia's conditions have long been outlined by Vladimir Putin and “are based on the realities on the ground,” the Russian diplomat noted.

During a meeting with the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry last summer, Vladimir Putin stated that he is ready to order his army to cease fire and begin peace negotiations as soon as Ukraine completely withdraws its troops from the Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions. In 2022, these regions of Ukraine were incorporated into the Russian constitution as subjects of the Russian Federation. To this condition, Putin always adds the requirement to reduce the size of the Ukrainian army and prohibit Ukraine from joining NATO.

Vladimir Zelensky insists that Moscow cannot demand anything from Kyiv, and a ceasefire without effective security guarantees would create conditions for a new round of Russian invasion in the coming years and would be a loss for Ukraine.

In an interview with ITV News, Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian Victory Plan, which he personally shared with Trump during their meeting in New York in the fall of 2024, could serve as the foundation for Trump's own peace plan. Zelensky also insists that the peace process should involve not only Ukraine but also the European Union: “Without Ukraine, Trump cannot have any plan, I am sure. It is preferable that Donald Trump's plan also includes the presence of Europe. This is important because Ukraine is part of Europe and will be part of the European Union.”

Election as a Tool for Destabilizing Ukraine

It remains unclear whether negotiations are taking place between Washington and Moscow behind Ukraine's back, or if this communication occurs after consultations with Kyiv. Clearly, the Kremlin does not mind the impression being created in the world that Russia and the U.S. are coordinating a common position on ending the war without Ukraine's involvement.

When U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia, Kit Kellogg, stated the necessity of holding presidential elections in Ukraine, the Russian president quickly commented that Vladimir Zelensky is an illegitimate president whose term has long expired. Therefore, according to Putin, the Ukrainian president supposedly has no right to sign any documents within the peace process. Like Kellogg, Putin noted the necessity of holding elections in Ukraine.

Vladimir Zelensky insists that elections under wartime conditions are a tool for destabilization in the hands of Russia. In an interview with ITV News, the Ukrainian president stated that Russia will not recognize the results of any elections unless its “puppet” wins.

“They will not recognize such elections. Although I am not interested in their opinion, I assure you that the Russians will say: the elections are illegitimate because people abroad or in occupied territories could not vote. And how can people in occupied territories vote? It will be the same 'referendum' that occurred in Crimea. A referendum at gunpoint,” said Zelensky.

According to the Ukrainian president, Russia only wants capitulation and complete occupation of Ukraine. Zelensky is confident that Moscow will only engage in peace negotiations when compelled to do so.

“Europeans Must Take Responsibility”

The Ukrainian president will try to convey his position during a personal meeting with Donald Trump, the exact date of which is still unknown. At the end of this week, Vladimir Zelensky also plans a trip to Germany to participate in the Munich Security Conference.

In Munich, according to American press reports, Zelensky has a bilateral meeting scheduled with U.S. Vice President James D. Vance. Along with Vance, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Kit Kellogg, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegset are expected to arrive in Munich to meet with Ukrainian leadership and discuss Donald Trump's peace plan. This was stated on NBC News by U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.

Additionally, Mike Waltz reiterated what Donald Trump said immediately after his inauguration: “The Russian economy is not doing very well. President Trump is prepared to impose taxes, tariffs, and sanctions against Russia if necessary.” Waltz did not provide a clear answer regarding what security guarantees would be for Ukraine if Russia could be persuaded to cease hostilities.

“The main principle is that Europeans must take responsibility for what happens next. President Trump intends to end the war. However, regarding security guarantees, that will be entirely on Europe’s conscience,” said Mike Waltz.

Although Vladimir Zelensky has repeatedly stated that any security guarantees will not be effective without U.S. involvement, it seems that the Trump administration is unwilling to heed the Ukrainian president's position.

America Will No Longer Help Ukraine for Free

Speaking about the future of American assistance to Ukraine on NBC News, Mike Waltz hinted that Kyiv is unlikely to continue receiving free aid from Washington. According to him, the Trump administration aims to recoup the funds already spent on supporting Ukraine: “We need to recoup these funds, and it will be a partnership with Ukrainians regarding their rare earth materials, natural resources, as well as oil and gas that they will buy from us.”

Just a few hours after Mike Waltz's statements, Donald Trump reported that Ukraine allegedly agreed to transfer rare earth minerals worth $500 billion to the United States in exchange for military assistance that Washington has already provided and will continue to provide